Cliff Lee For MVP?

Photo by aturkus on flickr

Cliff Lee is now 14-2 for an Indians team that has won only 45 games. Lee has over 31% of his team's wins.

The last pitcher to finish the season with more than 30% of his team's wins was Fergie Jenkins, winning 25 games for the 1974 Texas Rangers. And Jenkins pitched in a 4-man rotation, allowing him to get 41 starts.

In other words, no pitcher has ever done what Cliff Lee is doing: winning 30% of his team's games while pitching in a 5-man rotation.

Over-Active Game Design

Photo by Bari D

It's not surprising that everybody wants to be a game designer. What's bad is that everyone thinks they can be a good game designer.

Probably the most telling aspect of bad game design is "over-active" game design: the desire to "improve" games by adding complexity.

The media response to tonight's All Star Game is a perfect example of over-active game design. Some suggestions I've heard on T.V. and radio:

1. Anyone who pitched on Sunday should be banned from the All-Star Game.
2. The All-Star rosters should be even bigger (as if 32 players per team weren't enough).
3. Starting pitchers should be required to stay in for 4 innings.
4. Pitchers should be allowed to go back in the game, even if they were already used.
5. All pitchers on the Mets and Yankees (since they are probably already in New York) should have been available to pitch.
6. In extra innings, award a run for every hit.

All of these ideas are dumb: examples of fans thinking they can "fix" a game system by adding more rules.

Of course, the worst ever example of bad game design at the All Star Game was when Bud Selig stood up and declared a "tie" in 2002. He actually changed the rules of the game -- in the middle of the game!

Can you imagine the NFL Commissioner changing the rules for overtime of the Super Bowl?

"I just decided that for this overtime, you only need 5 yards for a first down. I know it's weird, but I'd like the game to end sooner."

It's absurd. But it's not as bad as what Selig did in 2002. Not only did he change the rules in the middle of the game, but he called a premature stop to an exciting extra-inning game. It was horrible game design and horrible showmanship, rolled together into one burrito of suck.

By now, you probably want to know what I think we should do about the problem of extra-inning All Star Games.

The answer: nothing.

When you run out of pitchers, let the position players pitch. It happens several times each year, in games that actually count. Which of the following would be more interesting to watch as a fan?

1) David Wright takes the mound in the bottom of the 16th. He gets the first two batters out but then gives up a walk-off homer to J.D. Drew.

2) Bud Selig waddles onto the field and declares a tie.

It's a no-brainer. Keep it simple. And stop trying to add rules where they aren't needed.

Varitek Isn't The Weak Link

I don't live in Boston anymore. But I still live in Red Sox Nation. This means that the radio next to my desk gets WEEI. The hot topic this week is how Jason Varitek's offensive drought is hurting the team.

Tek is definitely worrisome. However, his OPS of .672 is only 118 points below his career average.

Manny Ramirez has an OPS of .884 this year: 113 points below his career average of .997.

So you could argue that Manny's "slump" is hurting team offense just about as much as Tek's.

It's an interesting way to look at things. Varitek is getting close to the Mendoza line, so he's the one that stands out. But Manny's "dip" has actually cost the Red Sox more runs (because he gets more at bats, and has played in 11 more games).

Of course, I put "dip" in quotes because the truth is that both Manny and Tek are 36 years old -- so it's likely that this is exactly what we are supposed to expect from these two. Neither of these players is "slumping". They are both just getting old. Unless you are Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens, this is when your stats begin to take a nosedive. It's actually refreshing to see their performance taper off, instead of seeing them "reborn" as 40-year-old superstars because of steroids and HGH.

Varitek stands out to Red Sox as the bigger problem, because you shouldn't pay a guy $10 million to hit .220. But the upside of Tek's problems is that he's more easily replaceable. Assuming for a moment that his "game calling" abilities are over-rated, it can't be that hard to find a catcher that can hit .220. On the other hand, Manny is a future Hall-Of-Famer. Replacing that kind of offense is going to be nearly impossible. So, in the big picture, Manny's drop-off is actually more damaging to the Red Sox playoff hopes than Varitek's.

The downside of Tek's problems is that he's locked up through 2009, but Manny is a free agent after this year. After a season-and-a-half of Manny with a sub-.900 OPS, Theo can be pretty sure this isn't a fluke, which means it's unlikely we'll see him in a Red Sox uniform in '09.