Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Marvin Miller Dies at 95

Marvin Miller (1917-2012)

Marvin Miller, the father of free agency in baseball, died today at the age of 95. For those unfamiliar with baseball's labor history, I'm including below the history of baseball labor relations that we published 7 years ago (with some updates as part of our efforts to provide more realistic historical labor relations in Baseball Mogul 2014).

19th Century: The "Reserve Clause"

Although baseball rapidly evolved in the 19th century, its labor practices remained arcane. The owners were clever financial manipulators who championed the myth of baseball to establish the game in a way which also enriched their bank accounts. The first professional baseball league, the National Association of Professional Ball Players, formed in 1871. With little organizational structure, players jumped from team to team each year, campaigning for the best offer. The Association folded five years later in 1875. In 1876, a coal baron named William A. Hulbert, determined to ensure control resided with the owners, and not the players, founded the National League of Professional Base Ball Clubs.

Albert SpaldingWilliam Hulbert
To prevent the chaotic team-switching that had plagued the previous association, the teams agreed to secretly "reserve" five players at the end of each season. By the early 1880's, however, the Reserve Clause officially came into existence. The clause stated that the club had the right to renew a player's contract following each season - effectively making the player's contract the property of the team that first acquired him for the rest of the player's life. While the contract, and thus the player could be traded, a player could not choose to play for another team or effectively campaign for a salary raise. A powerful new owner, Albert G. Spalding, emerged during this time period. Complaining that baseball was facing a disastrous decline, Spalding decided to establish baseball's first salary cap at $2,500 a year.

1889: The First Player's Union

In response to this and the unpopular reserve clause, John M. Ward, a Columbia law school grad, organized baseball's first union, the Brotherhood of Professional Baseball Players. In its manifesto, Ward wrote that "players had been bought, sold, and traded as though they were sheep instead of American citizens. Like a fugitive slave law, the reserve clause denies him a harbor and a livelihood, and carries him back, bound and shackled, to the club from which he attempted to escape." Showing what would prove to be the usual degree of respect accorded baseball unions, Spalding and the rest of the owners responded by demanding the player's pay rent for their uniforms. Unwilling to be so disgraced, the players decided to form their own league.

The player's league, however, fell victim to a crowded market and the constant public pressures of the National League owners. Attendance dipped, and the league folded. After successfully destroying the league and the brotherhood, Spalding used all the rhetoric of baseball lore to describe the league's fate: "When the spring comes and the grass is green upon the last resting place of anarchy, the national agreement will rise again in all its weight, and restore to America in all its purity -- its national pastime -- the great game of baseball". Complete with the language of baseball as American, historic, pure, and pastoral, Spalding added another symbol to the mix - that of the national agreement. Without actually defining it, Spalding referred to "the national agreement" as the player's acceptance of the reserve clause. This “agreement” would prove to last almost one hundred years.

1922: Baltimore Terrapins lose to National League in Supreme Court

The national agreement would continue relatively un-assailed until the early 1920s, when a baseball team from Baltimore sued the National League over what it saw as monopolistic practices - included, but not limited to, the reserve clause. The case, Federal Baseball Club of Baltimore, Inc. v. National League of Professional Baseball Clubs, reached the Supreme Court in 1922. Although the Baltimore lawyers demonstrated several monopolistic practices prohibited by the Sherman Anti-Trust act, a unanimous Supreme Court ruled in favor of the National League. Chief Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes wrote in the court's opinion that baseball failed to meet the definition of interstate commerce. Calling the transport of players across state lines "mere incident" to the business conducted at the individual ball parks, Holmes and the court found a shaky and peculiar loophole for baseball's antitrust exemption, a practice the Supreme Court would continue for the next half century.

1946: Danny Gardella

Around mid-century another pair of cases challenged the legality of the reserve clause. The first, in 1946, involved Danny Gardella, who had turned down a contract with the New York Giants in order to play in the newly formed Mexican League. When the Mexican League failed shortly thereafter, Major League owners quickly punished those that had "defected”, threatening "America's Game". The clubs blacklisted each of the defectors for five years (although they did grant some exceptions). Gardella, who had never signed a contract in the majors, seemed to have the best case against the league, and he filed suit shortly thereafter. The owners, detecting an affront to the purity of the game, attacked Gardella in the press. In the typically exaggerated rhetoric owners would dip into when the game, and their pocketbooks, were threatened, Branch Rickey of the Dodgers proclaimed Gardella's attempt at free labor to possess a "communistic tendency". Few phrases could resonate louder in America with the Cold War just starting to heat up.

1953: George Toolson

Shortly thereafter, George Toolson brought another suit against baseball's reserve system. Toolson, who had toiled in the Yankee farm system for years, believed the reserve clause kept him from catching on with another team and making the majors. In 1953, Toolson v. New York Yankees reached the Supreme Court. The court, despite radio and television now sending games all over the country, maintained that baseball did not constitute interstate commerce. In rejecting Toolson's appeal, although not unanimously, the court shifted the burden to Congress to overturn baseball's antitrust legislation.

1966: Marvin Miller

The baseball plantation system carried on unperturbed. Despite the game's growing popularity and enormous new income from radio and television rights, the average player salary stayed at almost exactly the same point - compared to the general population - as it had for a century. In 1966, Dodger pitching stars Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale decided they could obtain a more representative amount of money if they negotiated together, and with agents. The owners were shocked. Dodger owner Walter O'Malley summed up the owners' view. "Baseball," he stated, "is an old fashioned game with old fashioned traditions". The duo later signed, without agents, for a salary several times lower than they had demanded.

Later frustrated by the owners' failure to place the specified amount of money in the pension plan, player sentiments for a strong union grew rapidly. In 1966, the players decided that the union needed a strong leader. After the first candidate fell through, the players named Marvin Miller, Chief Economic Advisor to the United Steelworkers of America, the first executive director of the Players' Association. The owners, of course, were angered, but the players had finally found a battle-tested leader in their fight against the reserve clause. "The moment we found out that the owners didn't want Marvin Miller," Flood stated. "He was our guy". The task for the players, however, still loomed large.

The myth of baseball, at least the version peddled by the owners through the newspapers, seemed almost invincible. If a player refused to cooperate with the team or seeked greater pay, he challenged not the owners personally, but "the Good of the Game". The players' dilemma proved great. The owners had spun the myths of baseball pastoral purity into Spalding's great "national agreement". A player privileged enough to play baseball had the duty to protect the "integrity" of the game, even if it meant accepting a reserve clause and a lower salary. "What burns me", Curt Flood wrote, "is the awareness that certain of his contributions to the fables of baseball strengthen the employer's position and weaken his own". Even with Miller at the union's helm, in the mid-1960s baseball seemed just as unassailable as it had a century earlier. A headline in the April 1964 edition of "Ebony" magazine read "Wanted: Abe Lincoln of baseball." Yet until the end of the decade, no player had stepped to the forefront, and the "national agreement" remained largely un-debated.

Curt Flood (1967) Curt Flood (1971)

1970: Curt Flood

On January 16, 1970, Curt Flood shocked the baseball world and America by filing suit against Major League Baseball and its reserve clause. Baseball had faced legal challenges in the past, but never had a player of Flood's caliber attempted to assail the game's sacred clause. The St. Louis Cardinals outfielder had earned three All-Star appearances, seven Gold Gloves, and a pair of World Series championships. Furthermore, Flood earned $90,000 a year, yet accused baseball of violating of the 13th amendment, barring slavery and involuntary servitude. With a few exceptions, the public and the media initially reacted to Flood's action in utter disbelief, branding the outfielder as an ungrateful "blasphemer".

Flood's case eventually climbed all the way to the Supreme Court. In the arguments, Flood's lawyer, former Supreme Court Justice Arthur Goldberg, put forth evidence that baseball's reserve clause violated the antitrust laws by depressing wages and limiting a player to one team. Baseball's defense lawyers countered Goldberg's broad arguments for human and labor rights point-by-point, but the crux of baseball's argument dealt with such ideas as tradition and "The Good of the Game." Through the course of the case, Flood gained more of the public's sympathy as the truly antiquarian nature of the reserve clause became known. The remarkable thing was that Flood lost the case. The Supreme Court ruled in favor of baseball 5-3, not on the strength of their case, but on a strange line of thought that combined a liberal use of stare decisis with a belief that baseball simply should stay the way it is.

The End of the “National Agreement”

Despite suits of a few no-name players like Gardella and Toolson and the contract protests of a couple of baseball's highest stars, the reserve system and Spalding's "national agreement" had remained firmly in place for almost a century. Despite sporadic protests, the system was designed so that, as Flood stated, "When truth challenges mythology, a wise ball player keeps his mouth shut". When Flood brought his suit in 1970, his greatest challenge, if not a Supreme Court neck-deep in baseball lore, stood as the American baseball fan with little time for the claims of a "$90,000-a-year slave." Flood later reflected on this: "It was so difficult for the fans to understand my problems with baseball. I was telling my story to deaf ears, because I was telling my story to a person who would give their first-born child to be doing what I was doing". In order for Flood to break the deal that had bound the owners, players, and American public for almost a hundred years, he had to debunk the most powerful of baseball myths and establish the baseball player as an example of the American working man.

As Flood realized, for his cause to even hold a chance, baseball could not be seen as high, holy, and sacred; it must be brought back down to real life, where he always had felt it correctly belonged. Flood attacked baseball myths, and through them the baseball establishment, in several ways. In order to improve his own "corner of society," he must first destroy some of baseball and America's most sacred myths. Through showing baseball's antiquarian ways and prominent racism, he crafted a picture of baseball as the refuge from little but common sense. Like civil rights leaders of the early sixties, Flood sought no revolutionary change but more a fulfillment of the values that America had so long supposedly championed.

The Court of Public Opinion

In his attempt to bring baseball down from myth to reality, Flood turned to one of the classic methods for ending illusions. He described the baseball player's life in complete and vivid detail. How long, he must have wondered, could the purity of the game endure after his descriptions of a life of wild nights, drugs, and sleazy women? Flood vividly described the daily drug intake needed to fuel a player through the long season and the matter-of-fact sexual arrangements made with the myriad baseball groupies in every city on the road. "The baseball establishment is permissive about revelry," Flood wrote, and suddenly the game did not seem quite so pure.

Flood similarly attempted to ground baseball in the rhetoric of the working man. Players were not gods patrolling the lush, pastoral fields but just men striving for security and stability. Flood variously described the ballplayer as "a consignment of goods," "poultry," "chattel," and "a car". He wrote that "baseball's terminology betrays its essential attitudes, which are those of animal husbandry. Baseball regards us as sheep". In choosing "sheep," the exact word choice of Ward in his 19th century critique of the reserve clause, Flood illustrated how little baseball players had progressed in a century where labor reforms had swept the nation. As Flood took one more swing at baseball and its pedestal, the "national agreement" stood on its last leg. As Flood's case hurtled toward the Supreme Court, he neared the close of what Miller called an "assault on the handful of words that had held baseball players in bondage for a century". And although the Supreme Court would side with the baseball owners, Flood had set the stage. Even in Flood's defeat, baseball would never be the same. The Court made clear it had only freed baseball on a technicality and urged congress to take action. Although some of the owners celebrated, most realized a defeat for Flood only slightly postponed the inevitable. The reserve clause, although still in existence, had little life left. Even the conservative commissioner Kuhn remarked that "change was in the wind".

1975: Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally

Despite promises to debate and modify the reserve clause after the Flood case, the owners, as always behind the time, decided to sit on the reserve clause for a few more years. In 1975, Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally filed grievances against the reserve clause. The case eventually reached arbitration and Peter Seitz. With Flood's arguments now well established and much more accepted throughout America, Seitz ruled in favor of the players and against baseball - stating that the reserve clause only kept players with their team for one year. The reserve clause's reign had ended.

Today

Since the origins of professional baseball until 1976, player salaries hovered around eight times that of the average American working man. By 1994, baseball players on average made 50 times the average worker. In 2003, the mean salary stands at over one million dollars. Near the end of Flood's life, when salaries soared into amazingly high numbers, he stated that today's players were finally receiving what the players of his day had deserved.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Everybody Lies




"Since Autonomy was a public company in the UK, much of the process relied on public financial reports — accounting statements approved, filed and backed by Autonomy’s leadership, board and auditors."

Dear Ms. Whitman and Mr. Apotheker, I don't think "due diligence" means what you think it means.

How is that two of the world's richest CEOs never learned the lesson that I learned in my 20s (the hard way, more than once): Everybody Lies.

Now that he is (spoiler alert) no longer working at Princeton-Plansboro, Dr. Gregory House should look into becoming a guest lecturer at Harvard Business School.

Srsly.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Middle-Aged White Man Denounces GOP


Dear Republican Party,

Allow me to introduce myself:

1) I am a white male. I am over 40 years of age. My family is white. My wife is so white that she has solar urticaria. She is literally allergic to sunlight.

2) I love America, the best country on earth. I am extremely patriotic and I strongly support our men and women in uniforms. My parents met in the Air Force -- I literally wouldn't be here without our armed forces. My company gives away all of our products, for free, to active members of the military.

3) I revere the Constitution. Our founding document is so brilliant that it hints at divine inspiration.

4) I can trace my family line in the New World back to 1630. My great great great great great great grandfather was a Revolutionary war hero.

5) I am pissed off at the current immigration situation. I work hard and pay my taxes while illegal immigrants and their employers get off scot-free.

6) I believe that the Federal government is way too big and that government bureaucracy is one of the greatest threats to our economy and to our freedom.

7) I am a business owner and job creator. Because our product is internationally popular, more than 60% of our revenue over the last two years came from overseas. In other words, I am doing my part to fix the trade imbalance and create American jobs.

8) I voted for George W. Bush and John McCain.

9) I am a workaholic. I haven't taken a real vacation since 1998. At the age of 14, I spent the summer literally "breaking rocks in the hot sun" for $4.00 an hour.

10) I believe in self-sufficiency and abhor debt. When I was laid off, I didn't collect unemployment insurance, because we didn't need it. Even though I have a disability that prevents me from working most jobs, I have never applied for benefits. My wife and I have no debt and we paid off a 30-year mortgage in less than 8 years.

Based on the above, you know that I voted for Mitt Romney yesterday. Right?

Wrong.

Here's why:

1. Fiscal Irresponsibility
I grew up learning that the GOP excelled at fiscal responsibility and economic growth. Roosevelt cranked up the national debt (from below 25% of GDP, to more than 100%) in order to pay for Social Security and World War II. Then Eisenhower was elected in 1952 and he brought the debt from 60% of GDP down to 45% over the next 8 years.

Lyndon Johnson didn't significantly increase the debt, but he did create two huge government programs (Medicaid and Medicare) and escalate the War in Vietnam. By the time President Nixon left office, the debt had reached its lowest point since the Great Depression (just 23.9% of GDP).

Alas, the Republican Party since Richard Nixon has looked more like the Bizarro Republican Party. And these failures by the GOP over the last 40 years cannot be blamed on external events or on Democrats in congress. They are a direct result of Republican policy.

Between the Bush Tax Cuts (a huge handout to the rich), Medicare Part D (a huge handout to pharmaceutical companies) and the War in Iraq (a huge handout to private defense contractors), George W. Bush added more than $7 trillion to the national debt.

By comparison, the Democrats have looked like Scrooge McDuck, pinching pennies and lowering the deficit. Clinton ended welfare as we knew it and turned Reagan's huge budget deficit into an actual budget surplus. Even Obama the "socialist" has reduced the deficit by over 3% of GDP in the last three years. This is more than in any 3-year period since the early 1950s.

2. Your Hatred Of The Free Market
Our government is giving more than $78 billion to oil companies over the next 10 years. That's more than $8,000 out of my family's pocket. Obama tried to end these subsidies, but he was voted down by 51 senators. Forty-seven of these senators were Republicans.

In 2005, Dick Cheney and Republicans in congress exempted Halliburton and other natural gas drillers from regulation under the Safe Drinking Water Act. If I compost broccoli stems in my backyard, I have to comply with the SDWA -- but Halliburton doesn't.

These examples are just the tip of the iceberg. This isn't the free market. This is the antithesis of the free market. This is the government taking tax dollars from my pocket and giving them to rich people.

3. "Job Creators"
John Boehner is either an idiot or a liar. He describes those benefiting from the Bush tax cuts as "job creators" and claims that raising their taxes will cripple our economy. This is not only specious, it is the opposite of the truth. Increasing top marginal tax rates increases the incentive for business owners to hire more people and reinvest in their company, because such investments are entirely tax-deductible.

All evidence from the last 70 years shows that the economy does much better when we at least try (with high marginal tax rates) to get the rich to pay their fair share of taxes. This is because the rich do not create jobs. Small businesses do. According to ADP, small businesses (with fewer than 50 employees) created 5.5 million new jobs between 2001 and 2007. Large businesses (with 500 or more employees) actually eliminated more than 600,000 jobs during the same time period.

Virtually all small business owners earn less than $250,000 per year. Unlike Sam Walton and the Koch brothers, small businesses can't use political power to get giant handouts from the government. Instead, I pay more than my fair share of taxes while creating American jobs. If every American earning more than $250,000 had the same trade surplus that I do, we would have a national trade surplus of more than $1.3 trillion (instead of our current trade deficit of about $550 billion).

The next time you see a small business succeed, remember: I built that! John Boehner and Paul Ryan didn't build it. And the Republican party certainly didn't build it.

4. National Defense
The Iraq War wasted trillions of dollars, killed 4,487 American soldiers and injured almost 32,000 more. It also made us less safe: "Al Qaeda In Iraq" didn't exist before we invaded.

Barack Obama issued the order to kill Osama Bin Laden. Mitt Romney said it wasn't worth the effort to "catch one person".

5. Integrity
My breakup with the GOP started that day in 2003 when President Bush lied to me about WMDs in Iraq.

President Clinton lied about oral sex. President Bush lied to get us into an unnecessary war that killed more than 4,400 American soldiers and over 100,000 civilians. Both of those lies were wrong. One of those lies was evil.

6. Wealth Redistribution
I paid over $200,000 in taxes last year. And yet my wife volunteers at food pantries so that American children won't go hungry. We have had to give money to friends to keep them from becoming homeless. Meanwhile, the Koch brothers are busy trying to steal more than $10.6 billion each year from middle class taxpayers.

The GOP complains that wealth is being "redistributed" from the rich class to the poor. The truth is that the Federal government primarily redistributes wealth from the middle class (actual job creators) to the rich. Democrats like Obama and Biden realize this, and are making an honest effort to reverse this ruinous trend. If we continue transferring wealth from the middle class to the super-rich, we will have the same income inequality as Brazil in just 6 years.

If you don't know why having the same Gini coefficicent as Brazil would be a bad thing, you need to spend more time reading international news and less time reading Ayn Rand.

-------

Take note that I didn't mention Obamacare, abortion, climate change, racism, gender discrimination, gay marriage or other "social issues". I haven't abandoned the GOP because the GOP hates gays. I have abandoned the GOP because you no longer stand for the things that you say that you stand for.

National politics in my lifetime can be easily summarized. The GOP espouses a set of beliefs that are important to the American people such as: integrity; self-reliance; fiscal responsibility; economic opportunity; rewarding hard work; protecting families; securing our borders; and maintaining a strong defense. Then, when we elect Republicans to advance these ideals, you fail on every count and we have to wait for a Democrat like Bill Clinton or Barack Obama to actually govern according to these principles.

I can no longer call myself a "Republican" when that label has come to mean "rich white guy pillaging the middle class for personal gain".

Friday, September 14, 2012

The Worst Front Office Move Ever?

Babe Ruth (1918)
Babe Ruth (1918)
It's not hard for most people to come up with a list of "dumb front office moves" in the history of baseball:
  • #10. Philadelphia Phillies trade Larry Bowa and Ryne Sandberg to the Chicago Cubs for Ivan DeJesus. (1982)
  • #9. The Cincinnati Reds trade Frank Robinson to the Baltimore Orioles for Milt Pappas. (1965)
  • #8. The Cubs trade Dennis Eckersley to the A's for three guys that never made it to The Show (OF David Wilder, IF Brian Guinn, and P Mark Leonette). (1987)
  • #7. Chicago Cubs trade Lou Brock to the St. Louis Cardinals for Ernie Broglio. (1964)
  • #6. Tigers trade John Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander. (1987)
  • #5. The Expos trade Randy Johnson, Gene Harris and Brian Holman to the Seattle Mariners for Mike Campbell and Mark Langston. (1989)
  • #4. The Expos (again) trade Pedro Martinez to the Red Sox for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas. (1997)
  • #3. Cincinnati Reds trade Christy Mathewson to the New York Giants for Amos Rusie. (Rusie would only play 3 more games before retiring with arm trouble). (1900)
  • #2. Mets trade pitchers Nolan Ryan and 3 other players to the California Angels for Jim Fregosi. (1971)
  • #1. The Red Sox sell Babe Ruth to Yankees for $200,000. (1919)
This list is far from complete. But the problem with the above list is that we only know they are bad moves with the benefit of hindsight. If the move seemed reasonable at the time, then we can't honestly say that it was a horrible move. An action is smart or dumb based on the facts on the ground at the time it is made. You can't go back after the fact and call something stupid because it didn't happen to work out.

For example, lets say you are trailing 4-3 and you have Dave Roberts on 1st base in the bottom of the 9th. And just for fun, let's say that you're managing the Red Sox in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS. The right move is to steal second. It increases your chance to win. Even if Roberts is caught stealing, it is still the correct move.


Pedro Martinez
Although Pedro Martinez is a future Hall-Of-Famer who helped the Red Sox break an 86-year losing streak, the Expos did avoid having to cough up a giant free agent contract to keep Pedro in Montreal. One could argue it wasn't a bad move at the time.

Legend holds that 
Harry Frazee sold Ruth to finance a musical, but the truth is that Ruth was demanding a 100% raise. Frazee actually unloaded The Babe for the same reason that the Expos traded Pedro: money. The Red Sox owner said of the deal at the time:
"With this money the Boston club can now go into the market and buy other players and have a stronger and better team in all respects than we would have had if Ruth had remained with us."
However, it seems clear that Frazee was only covering up the fact that he had put his financial priorities about his team's chances to win. The New York Times knew that the Yankees had made out like bandits before Ruth played his first game in pinstripes:
"The short right field wall at the Polo Grounds should prove an easy target for Ruth next season and, playing seventy-seven games at home, it would not be surprising if Ruth surpassed his home run record of twenty-nine circuit clouts next Summer."
So, that seems like a trade that you don't need hindsight to criticize. To find the worst front office move ever, we need to find a move at least as comically stupid as selling Babe Ruth.
Stephen Strasburg
If you turn on the TV or radio, it's pretty clear that everyone (except the Nationals) already thinks that shutting down Stephen Strasburg for the rest of the season is the dumbest thing they have ever heard of.

As I write this, the Washington Nationals have the best record in baseball (89-54) and the best top 3 starters in the National League. If you simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times, the Nationals win the World Series an amazing 26.0% of the time.

Without Strasburg, their World Championship chances drop to 19.7% -- a 24% reduction in their chance at a title. To look at it another way, shutting down Strasburg costs the team .063 World Championships (.260 minus .197). And this doesn't even account for any psychological effect on the other players because their team is waving the white flag in September.

Is it worth cutting your title chances by almost 1/4th to keep Strasburg healthy?

Without shutting him down, the chance of a "complete recovery" from Tommy John surgery is 85-92%Just for the fun of it, let's assume that shutting down Strasburg raises the success rate to a 100%. So, shutting him down might eliminate a 15% chance of ruining his arm.

Strasburg becomes a free agent after 2016, at which point he has absolutely no value to the Nationals. So Washington is trying to save his arm for the next four years.

The Nationals are a good team. But they aren't the 1927 Yankees. At best, the Nats start 2013 as the favorites to win the World Series. Unlikely, but possible. Even as the best team in the majors, they have about a 15% chance to win the World Series. Without Strasburg, this drops to about 11%.


As a rough rule of thumb, each win adds about 1% to a team's World Championship chances (among teams in playoff contention). If Strasburg averages a WAR of 4.0, then the Nats' chance of winning it all drops by about 4% without him.

So the Nationals lose .04 World Titles in 2013 if Strasburg is on the DL for the entire season. Add up the years from 2013 through 2016, and you could conceivably get the value of a healthy Strasburg up to .16 World Series titles.

But we assumed that shutting down Strasburg is only increasing the chance of him staying healthy by 15% (at most). So shutting him down only nets you .024 World Series titles -- less than 40% of the value that you are giving up this year, by shutting him down.

And remember, this is assuming that the Nationals have the best team in baseball for the next 4 years -- a pretty absurd assumption. It is far more likely that the Nats regress to the mean. If they do, then a healthy Strasburg has even less value in terms of World Championships.

So, even in the most charitable analysis, the Nationals are idiots. And you don't need the benefit of hindsight to figure that one out.

Monday, July 23, 2012

Stopping America's Killers



I have great sympathy and compassion for everyone in Colorado who lost someone on Friday. Twelve families had their lives turned upside-down, in the middle of the night, when they found out that a loved one had been shot and killed in, of all places, a movie theater. The victims ranged in age from 6 to 51. As a parent, I can't imagine how horrible it would be to lose a child.


But the movie theater shooting wasn't the only thing that happened on Friday. On the same day:

  • 21 Americans were killed by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (primarily aspirin and ibuprofen).

    Source:
    Annals of Internal Medicine.

  • 38 Americans were killed by juvenile diabetes.

    So
    urce: Journal of the American Medical Association (vol 286: pp. 1195-1200).

So... instead of (or in addition to) speaking up with your views about gun control (or lack thereof), please take 60 seconds and give $5.00 to one of the following causes:
  1. American Foundation for Suicide Prevention
  2. St. Jude Children's Research Hospital
  3. American Lung Association Of The Upper Midwest
  4. Fisher Center For Alzheimer's Research Foundation
  5. Action on Smoking and Health
  6. Center for Science in the Public Interest
All of the above charities received 4 stars (out of 4) from Charity Navigator, indicating that they maximize the amount of money spent directly on the prevention of suffering, disease and death. If you can't decide, just roll a die (seriously).

While you're at it, please make an appointment to give bloodMore than 12,000 Americans will require a blood transfusion today.

I have several friends who died long before reaching old age. None of them were shot by a stranger in a movie theater. The Aurora shootings are horrific and headline-grabbing. But arguing about how James Holmes bought his guns and ammunition has little effect on the lives of everyday Americans.

I really do feel for the families in Colorado. But there are many more people that are suffering, and they need your help.

Thank you!

Clay

Thursday, July 19, 2012

10 Best PG-13 Comedies



It's summer, which means a bunch of girls at my house on a Wednesday night trying to watch R-rated movies on Netflix. As we don't want to be the house where everyone saw Ben Stiller's nutsack (or Will Ferrell's nut sack), we drew a line at PG-13.

The problem is, PG-13 is a weird niche. It's where a lot of crappy comedies end up -- movies that are squeezed out in 6 weeks with just enough raunchy jokes to fill a commercial, but not enough to give the movie an R rating (see, for example, "The Waterboy").

The true comedy classics (Toy Story 3, Back to the Future, Elf, Monty Python and the Holy Grail) are all PG. And the laugh-out-loud comedies of the 21st century are all rated 'R' (Harold and Kumar, 40-Year-Old Virgin, The Hangover, Borat, Role Models) or worse than 'R' (the director's cut of Team America: World Police).

Nevertheless, here are ten PG-13 movies worth watching. As if the world needs more giggling tweens.

1. Happy Gilmore
"The price is wrong, bitch."

2. Stranger Than Fiction.
This is not a laugh-out-loud movie, and not aimed at 12-year-olds. But it's excellent, and I couldn't leave it off the list.

3. Keeping The Faith.
Like "Stranger Than Fiction", this is less silly than the rest of the list, but surprisingly good.

4. Big Daddy
12-year-old girls love watching 5-year-old boys urinate in public.

5. Baby Mama
Tina Fey and Amy Poehler have enough talent and chemistry to overcome to mediocre writing.

6. Blades Of Glory

7. The Simpsons Movie

8. Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me
Mini-me is single-handedly responsible for the sequel getting ranked above the original.

9. Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby

10. Wayne's World

Honorable Mention:

Mean Girls
The only feature-length movie written by Tina Fey.

The Other Guys

Tower Heist

Date Night

Rush Hour

I Now Pronounce You Chuck And Larry

Austin Powers, International Man Of Mystery
Austin Power fans will want to see this movie ranked higher, but I didn't enjoy it as much the 2nd time around.

Dumb and Dumber
12-year-olds love jokes about diarrhea.

Bruce Almighty
This movie is just like "The Shawshank Redemption" except that they replaced Tim Rollins with Jim Carrey.

Liar, Liar.
Some people like Jim Carrey and some hate him. If you like this movie, there are about 6 other movies just like it (the best of which is Leap Dave Williams).

I'm sure I've missed some. That's what the comments section is for...

As an aside, IMDB.com (with more than 500,000 votes) thinks that "Inception" is the 14th best movie of all time. Better than Star Wars. Are you fucking kidding me?!?

Thursday, July 12, 2012

1992 Dream Team vs. 2012 Team USA



Kobe Bryant just announced that the 2012 U.S. Olympic Team could beat the 1992 U.S. Olympic Team (more commonly known at the Dream Team).

Michael Jordan's response: "I just laughed".

For some bizarre reason, there is no baseball today. So I'm going to break down the Dream Team vs. Team USA matchup.
Before you read the position-by-position breakdown, it's worth noting that I tend to think that the players of today are better than the players of yesteryear, across all sports. Manny Ramirez was a better player than Babe Ruth, even though Ruth has many more "Win Shares". Ruth abused his body, did no off-season training, and played against a much smaller talent pool.

In the NBA, conditioning and coaching (and defense) keeps improving. Players study more tape than they did 20 years ago. The international talent pool keeps growing. Bill Russell won 11 Championship Rings, but I bet he couldn't beat Tim Duncan 1-on-1.

With that in mind, here's my breakdown:

Position
Dream Team (1992)
Team USA (2012)
Advantage
Point Guard Magic Johnson Chris Paul Dream Team
Shooting Guard Michael Jordan Kobe Bryant Dream Team
Small Forward Larry Bird Kevin Durant Team USA
Power Forward Charles Barkley LeBron James Team USA
Center Patrick Ewing Tyson Chandler Dream Team
Bench (PG) John Stockton (PG) Russell Westbrook (PG)
Deron Williams (PG)
Team USA
Bench (SG/SF) Clyde Drexler (SG)
Chris Mullin (SF)
Scottie Pippen (SF)
James Harden (SG)
Andre Iguodala (G/F)
Carmelo Anthony (SF)
Even
Bench (PF/C) Karl Malone (PF)
Christian Laettner (PF)
David Robinson (C)
Kevin Love (PF)
Anthony Davis (PF)
Dream Team

Final Verdict: Dream Team wins, 4-3.

Comments

Point Guard
Statistically, Magic Johnson is the best point guard ever. He is frequently compared to LeBron James - a freak of nature that could play any position. I love watching Chris Paul, but he's no Magic Johnson.

Shooting Guard
I hate Kobe. Just when the team I'm rooting for (Spurs, Celtics, Suns, Thunder) is about to win, he sticks in the dagger. However, MJ is the only player I've ever seen play who had more last-second heroics. Also, MJ was 4 years younger than Kobe is now.

Small Forward
As much as I hate Kobe, I love Larry. Born in Boston, I was a huge Celtics fan in the 1980s. But Durant's better, and he finally proved to the world this year than he can carry a team as well as Bird.

Power Forward
James normally plays Small Forward. But on a team that needs size, I think his role will shift to Power Forward, where he's better than Sir Charles.

Center
The Dream Team had two Hall-Of-Fame centers: Ewing and Robinson (they each started 4 games). Chandler is fun to watch, and he's more fun to root for than Dwight Howard. But he can't compare to either of the Twin Towers of Ewing and Robinson.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

RPG Ability Scores, Part III: Fantasy Draft

For the last installment on ability scores, a fun way to create an entire party, borrowing from the fantasy draft feature in Baseball Mogul.

Step 1: Everyone Rolls Up One Character
Each player generates one set of stats, rolling 4d6 and keeping the best 3, and recording the stats in the order rolled. The GM does the same.

Here's an example with 4 players:


Table CellAlex Beth Clay Daryl GM
STR 10 18 12 14 17
INT 14 11 11 11 17
WIS 11 9 7 12 11
DEX 12 12 10 11 14
CON 15 16 13 9 7
CHA 15 18 11 11 13

We see that Clay rolled a pretty bad character. But that's OK because he's going to pool his rolls with everyone else before divvying them up.

Step 2: Re-Rolls
Each player picks one of the stats that they rolled and re-rolls it, keeping the highest score. We are trying to build the best party, not the best character. So, Alex chooses to re-roll her WIS score, in hopes of having at least one high Wisdom score to choose from. Here are the scores after the re-rolls (shown in [bold]):


Table CellAlexBethClayDarylGM
STR1018121417
INT1411111117
WIS[12][16]71211
DEX128[13][16]14
CON15161398
CHA1518111113


Step 3: Throw Out The Boring Scores
To keep things interesting, remove the *middle* score from each row. This preserves the interesting scores (the high rolls and low rolls), but also keeps the average score near 12.2 (the average result of rolling 4d6 and keeping the best 3).

The remaining scores are the ones that players will "draft" from (shown here, sorted from high to low):


STR18171210
INT17141111
WIS1612117
DEX1614128
CON161598
CHA18151111


Step 4: "Draft" The Scores
Player #1 ("Alex") picks first. She can pick any score in the table, but she can't change what stat it applies to. If she picks the '18' in the STR row, she has to use it for Strength.

Alex wants to play a thief/rogue, so she picks the 16 DEX. Here are the characters after Round 1 of the draft:

Table CellAlex
(Thief)
Beth
(Cleric)
Clay
(Fighter)
Daryl
(Mage)
STR

[18]
INT


[17]
WIS
[16]

DEX[16]


CON



CHA




For the 2nd round, we reverse the draft order, so that Player #1 doesn't get to pick first in every round:


Table CellAlex
(Thief)
Beth
(Cleric)
Clay
(Fighter)
Daryl
(Mage)
STR[17]18
INT
17
WIS
16
DEX16
CON[15][16]
CHA[18]

And here's the completed set of characters (before racial adjustments):

Table CellAlex
(Thief)
Beth
(Cleric)
Clay
(Fighter)
Daryl
(Mage)
STR12171810
INT11141117
WIS1116712
DEX1681214
CON891516
CHA18111511

Summary: Each character gets a very good score in their primary attribute. But unlike systems that let players arrange stats as they like, they can't dump their low rolls in their least favorite stats (usually some combination of INT, WIS and CHA -- depending on character class). So you end up with some high stats in places where you wouldn't expect them (like the Thief with an 18 Charisma) and some potential weaknesses (such as the Cleric with an 8 Dexterity)

Monday, July 9, 2012

RPG Ability Scores, Part II: Counting Dice

As a follow-up to yesterday's post about generating ability scores that are both random and balanced, here's a system that treats all six ability scores equally, and more easily adjusts to different power levels.

Step 1: Roll 14d6
Note: For a "low-powered" campaign, use 12d6. For a "high-powered" campaign, use 16d6 (or more).

If more than 8 dice show the same result, re-roll the extra dice.

Step 2: Count the Dice
Count up all the dice showing '1'. The number of 1's determines your Strength score using the following table:

Dice
Score
Dice
Score
0
8
5
16
1
10
6
17-
2
12
7
17+
3
14
8
18
4
15


Repeat this process for all the 2's (INT), 3's (WIS), 4's (DEX), 5's (CON) and 6's (CHA).

Step 3: Tweak The Totals

If you recorded "17-" or "17+" for any of your scores, do the following:

1. If you rolled a "17-" and "17+", ignore them (they cancel each other out).
2. If you rolled a "17-", subtract one point from any ability score (not reducing any score below 8).
3. If you rolled a "17+", add one point to any ability score (not raising any score above 14).

Step 4. Re-Arrange

I prefer to simply swap any two scores at this point. It ensures that you get a variety of characters. But you can use whatever system suits your campaign.

Friday, July 6, 2012

RPG Ability Scores, Part I: Random *and* Balanced

Putting on my nerd hat for a minute. Ever since the late 1970s, I've struggled with the problem of generating ability scores in tabletop role-playing games (this problem also carries over into CRPGs and MMOs).

In the original
Dungeons & Dragons, ability scores (such as Strength and Dexterity) were rolled using 3d6. It was a lot of fun "rolling up" stats, seeing your character come to life before your eyes. But the randomness was really unsatisfying (and unfair). My cousin always had the knack of rolling about three 18s for each character, while the rest of us stumbled around with an 8 Dexterity and 3 Charisma (yes, my first D&D character actually had a 3 ar

In 1979, my best friend bought me a copy of the
Champions role-playing game (now part of the Hero System). Characters were no longer random. You had a fixed number of points to divide among your various characteristics and abilities. It was great have every character built on an equal footing. But we lost the fun of "rolling up a character".

Also, point-buy systems lead to all characters being the same. For example, all fighters will "max out" their Strength and spend the fewest points on less useful characteristics (like Charisma).

To solve these problems, h
ere is the system I use in my own RPG, but it also works in most iterations of Dungeons & Dragons.
You may notice that I'm determining ability scores in the same order in which they were presented in the original Advanced Dungeons and Dragons (now referred as "1st Edition"). As I said, I've been pondering this problem since the 1970s.

Step 1: Roll Your Ability Scores
Determine each of the first four ability (STR, INT, WIS, DEX) scores randomly, by rolling 4d6 and keeping the best three. Record the abilities in the order in which you roll them. Set any roll below 8 equal to 8.

Step 2: Add Up The Point Cost

Using the following table, add up the point cost of the ability scores that you already rolled.

Table 1: Ability Score Point Cost
Score
Cost
Score
Cost
8
0
14
6
9
1
15
8
10
2
16
10
11
3
17
13
12
4
18
16
13
5


If the total cost of your first four ability scores is below 4 or above 25, go back to Step 1 and re-roll those scores.

Step 3: Complete Your Ability Scores
To determine your final 2 ability scores, look up the total cost (from Step 2) on the following table:

Total
Cost
CON
CHA
Total
Cost
CON
CHA
4
18
13
15
10
15
5
12
18
16
14
11
6
14
17
17
10
14
7
17
13
18
10
13
8
17
12
19
13
9
9
11
17
20
12
9
10
13
16
21
8
12
11
16
12
22
9
10
12
16
11
23
10
8
13
10
16
24
9
8
14
15
11
25
8
8

After filling in your CON and CHA scores, you may swap any two scores.

I find that this is a great way to create random characters that are also balanced. And the final swap at the end gives you just enough control to create a playable character that still has some interesting quirks.