Monday, February 8, 2016

"European Tax Rates"

I'm hearing folks say that Bernie Sanders would bring "European tax levels" to America...
Unfortunately, we already pay "European tax levels". And we don't even get free healthcare or free college out of it (and many European countries actually pay you to live while you go to college or raise children).
The total "tax burden" for the United States as a country is 26.9%, which ranks us behind European countries like Switzerland (29.4%), Greece (30.0%) and Ireland (30.8%). (BTW, Canada is at 32.2%).
BUT ... that 26.9% doesn't include all of our state and local taxes! Because we are the only country in the world with 50 different tax systems. In Connecticut, for example, we add another 13.05% in income tax and sales tax. Plus another 6.452% in property taxes (as an average spread out over the state population). That brings the overall tax burden up to 46.4% for those of us in the Nutmeg State.
That's more than Germany (40.6%), France (44.6), Norway (43.6%), Finland (43.6%) or even Sweden (45.8%). In fact there is only ONE country in the world (Denmark) with higher taxes.
BTW, these tax rates are even worse for the middle class, because the one place where the U.S. *does* have low tax rates is for millionaires and billionaires. (As business owners, and actual "job creators", my wife and paid more than 50% of our income in taxes in 2014).
So, why do we pay so much and get so little?
The biggest reason is "defense". We spent $596 billion on the Department of Defense in 2014 and another $98.8 billion on "Homeland Security". We might think "defense" is a good thing -- that we are supporting our troops and veterans. But the VA is an entirely separate budget (~$150 billion) and most of the $596 billion isn't going to pay our soldiers. Our army is the smallest it's been since 1940 and the navy is the smallest since 1915. Instead, we are spending $400 billion on projects like the F-35 Strike Fighter, which can't fly in bad weather or at night, and still has never been used in combat.
The 2nd biggest reason is healthcare. Our GOVERNMENT spends more on healthcare than any other country in the world. That doesn't even include the amount that we are all paying for PRIVATE health insurance. The reasons for high medical costs are too much to go into here (the Affordable Care Act was 1000+ pages and it only started to tackle the problem). But, compared to other countries we are completely wasting the 24% of that money that goes directly to insurance companies instead of treating patients. And we have the highest-paid doctors in the world thanks to a monopoly (the AMA) that limits the total number of doctors.
The 3rd biggest reason is prisons. It costs more to keep an 18-year-old kid in prison than to send him to Harvard. But as a country we've decided that violent crime is "rampant" (it's not) and "drugs are bad" (even though marijuana is now decrimalized in 20 states, and yet it's the #1 reason we send people to jail).
Sources:
http://norml.org/aboutmarijuana/item/states-that-have-decriminalized
https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Appendix
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=724209
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2014/oct/05/lindsey-graham/lindsey-graham-army-smallest-1940-navy-smallest-19/
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-high-price-of-americas-incarceration-80-billion/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_as_percentage_of_GDP

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

The Real Reason Middle-Aged White Men Are Dying

Last week, Dr. Anne Case and Dr. Angus Deaton published a paper analyzing the change in American death rates over the last 15 years. The good news is that, thanks to improvements in the economy and the delivery of health care, the mortality rate has fallen in almost all demographic groups. The bad news is that middle-aged white men have bucked this trend. Among non-hispanic white men ages 45 to 54, the mortality rate has risen from 380 to 415 (per 100,000 Americans in that age group).

Dr. Case and Dr. Deaton were able to identify the direct cause of these additional premature deaths: suicide, drug overdoses, and liver disease (from alcohol abuse). However, they were on shakier ground when trying to explain the root cause of the increase in suicide and substance abuse in this demographic. Dr. Deaton believes that middle-aged white men are dying because they have "lost the narrative of their lives" (whatever the fuck that is supposed to mean).

Since then, everyone from Paul Krugman to Mother Jones to the The Daily Caller have chimed in.

Krugman goes on for fourteen paragraphs, blaming everything from rising inequality to "traditional religion" and America's relatively weak welfare system. Sweden, for example, has a stronger welfare state and places less emphasis on religion -- and Sweden's middle-aged mortality rate is about 50% lower than white America's.


Alas, Krugman completely misses the mark. While America's higher poverty rate might affect overall mortality, there's no reason that it would hit middle-aged white men the hardest. White men in their 40s and 50s are among the highest earners in the U.S. (and the world).

Dartmouth economists Ellen Meara and Jonathan S. Skinner point to more "pessimism" among whites about their financial futures; Olga Khazan of The Atlantic concludes that "Middle-Aged White Americans Are Dying of Despair"; and Canadian epidemiologist Atif Kukaswadia says that "we have no idea" what is killing middle-age white Americans.

It's hard to believe that all these "experts" are completely ignoring the real reason. It's right in front of their eyes ... if they would just look down at their calendar:


White men aren't drawing our attention because they have become more pessimistic or "lost their narrative". Middle-aged white men are exceptional for the simple reason that they have volunteered for military service at a level higher than other demographic groups, and at a level much higher than that found in any European country.

Sweden doesn't have the level of income inequality that we have. But Sweden also doesn't have the world's largest military. The United States has more than 26 million military veterans. Ninety-three percent of them are male. Veterans are at much higher risk for suicide and substance abuse. According to the VA's own report, suicide kills 22 veterans every day.

Do The Numbers Add Up?

Of course, this theory is only true to the extent that the increased mortality rate among veterans can explain the increased mortality among middle-aged white men. The basic facts do show that it is primarily white middle-aged veterans that are dying from suicide:
  • Among veterans, 92.6% of suicide deaths are white (compared with 87.7% among non-veterans).
  • Among veterans, 91.5% of suicide deaths are classified as non-hispanic (compared with 87.2% in non-veterans).
  • Among veterans, 85.3% of suicide deaths occur in those over age 40 (compared with only 55.6% among non-veterans).
From 1998 to 2014, the suicide rate among white non-Hispanics ages 45-54 rose from 16 to 25 (per 100,000). This is the increase that two different Nobel Laureates (Krugman and Deaton) are trying to attribute to a "weak welfare state" and a "lost narrative", respectively.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are 12,752,000 white non-hispanic Americans between the ages of 45 and 54. This means that an increase in mortality of 9 per 100,000 translates to an additional 1100-1200 deaths per year.

According to the VA, more than 4.9 million veterans are between the ages of 45 and 54. Ninety-five percent of the veterans in this age group are male; ninety-two percent are non-white and ninety-four percent are non-hispanic. This leaves us with 4.02 million non-hispanic white male veterans between 45 and 54. The suicide rate in this cohort is 38 per 100,000 -- higher than the rate among all middle-aged men, and higher than the rate among all veterans. If we do the math, we see that non-hispanic white male veterans in this age cohort account for more than 1500 suicides every year.

Conclusion

The rise in premature deaths among white Amercian men in the 45-54 age group can be completely explained (and then some) by the number of military veterans in this cohort. If you remove U.S. military veterans from the data, the suicide rate among middle-aged white men is actually falling.

We can argue about why military service leads to increased rates of suicide, alcoholism and drug addiciton, But that argument shouldn't include an attempt to diagnose an entire generation with ennui. We are not having a crisis among middle-aged white men. We are having a crisis among veterans and they need (and deserve) our focus and continued (and increased) support.

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Dear Liberals; Dear Conservatives

Cartoon by Dave Granlund
Dear Liberals,

Please stop saying that because the Second Amendment was written in 1789, it only protects the right to carry muskets.

It doesn't say "the right to bear muskets shall not be infringed". It says "the right to bear arms". Arms. Swords, guns, land mines, rocket-propelled grenades, fighter jets, nukes, sharks, lasers, sharks with lasers. Those are all "arms". Those are what "arms dealers" sell.

Liberals more than anyone should understand that the Constitution evolves over time. In 1789, "citizen" referred to a white male. Today, it applies to men and women, black and white, brown and yellow, rich and poor.

In 1789, "arms" referred to muskets. Today, it refers to AR-15s and M-1 tanks. This is the reason you seriously need to stop playing the "musket" card. Eventually, you will give your rifle-owning neighbor the idea to fight for his right to own all arms: machine guns, biological weapons, you name it. And when his case goes to the Supreme Court, to the Roberts Court, there's a good chance he'll win. Because the Second Amendment doesn't say "muskets"; it says "arms".

Also, stop picking on the 2nd Amendment. The 2nd Amendment played no role in the Senate's recent failure to pass meaningful legislation to reduce gun violence. This battle isn't being fought in the courts; it's being fought in the legislature.

If you want to write an angry letter, tell Harry Reid to grow some balls and fix the filibuster.

Dear Conservatives,

Please stop saying that gun registries and background checks "treat law-abiding gun owners like criminals". I keep hearing that background checks are asking the gun buyer to "prove" that she isn't a criminal, instead of starting with the premise that the gun buyer is innocent until proven guilty.

Well, guess what? When I buy lumber at my local hardware store, the cashier checks the signature on the back of my credit card. Am I offended? Nope. I'm happy that they are making sure I'm not a criminal, running up fraudulent charges and passing the blame along to me.

As gun buyers, we should be ecstatic that we get to prove that we are not criminals. We don't want actual criminals shooting up schools and focusing the blame on law-abiding gun owners.

When I board an airplane, I go through a fucking x-ray machine that can see my testicles. All to prove that I'm not a criminal. I'm 42 years old and I still get carded when I buy beer. Do I go bat-shit crazy and accuse the convenience store clerk of "treating me like a criminal"? No. I do not.

When the next Dick Cheney comes to take all our guns, we don't want him to have a list of where all the gun owners live. That is a valid argument against gun registries. But please stop complaining that you are being "treated like a criminal" just because you have to fill out a fucking form. It's not a valid argument, and it serves to invalidate any other arguments you try to make.

If you want to be treated like a criminal in this country, you don't need a gun. You just need to have dark skin and a hoodie.



Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Fixing the NBA Draft

On May 20th, almost three million people tuned in to watch the NBA Draft Lottery. That's right -- more people watched this year's NBA Draft Lottery than have attended Miami Heat games since they signed LeBron James.

The draft lottery consists of twelve ping-pong balls getting pulled from a spinning plastic drum. But the really pathetic thing is that we don't even get to see the balls bounce around. The ping-pong balls are drawn off-camera, and then the results are put in an envelope. And then three million Americans turn on their TV to watch the envelopes get opened.

It's like bingo, but worse. It's like waiting for your grandmother to go play bingo. Then, when she gets home, asking her what happened. As an American, that makes me sad. We have nothing better to do than watch a TV show that reveals, second-hand, the results of "Bingo For Billionaires".

The good news is that we can fix it. We don't have to allocate draft picks like a church pastor calling out bingo numbers. We can replace the NBA Draft Lottery with the NBA Draft Tournament.

The NBA Draft Tournament

Instead of putting all 14 non-playoff teams into a big bucket and playing bingo, we put all 14 teams into a single-elimination tournament bracket. All the excitement of March Madness, but with the future of your favorite NBA team resting in the balance.

Here's how it works:

1) Divide the 14 non-playoff teams into two brackets containing 7 teams each (one bracket for each conference).

2) In each bracket, the teams with the most regular-season wins play each other in a 1-game playoff. The loser goes home and the winner advances to play the team with the next best regular-season record.

3) Continue until you have one winner from each conference. These two teams play for the #1 pick.

4) Award the remaining picks according to how far each team advanced in the NBA Draft Tournament.

For example, these are what the brackets would have been for the 2014 NBA Draft Tournament:

Western Conference
Eastern Conference
Game #1
Phoenix Suns (48-34)
at
Minnesota Timberwolves (40-42)
Game #2
New York Knicks (37-45)
at
Cleveland Cavaliers (33-49)
Game #3
Winner of Game #1 (above)
at
  Denver Nuggets (36-46)
Game #4
Winner of Game #2 (above)
at
Detroit Pistons (29-53)
Game #5
Winner of Game #3 (above)
at
 New Orleans Pelicans (33-49)
Game #6
Winner of Game #4 (above)
at
Boston Celtics (25-57)
Game #7
Winner of Game #5 (above)
at
 Sacramento Kings (28-54)
Game #8
Winner of Game #6 (above)
at
Orlando Magic (23-59)
Game #9
Winner of Game #7 (above)
at
Los Angeles Lakers (27-55)
Game #10
Winner of Game #8 (above)
at
Philadelphia 76ers (19-63)
Game #11
Winner of Game #9 (above)
at
 Utah Jazz (25-57)
Game #12
Winner of Game #10 (above)
at
Milwaukee Bucks (15-67)
Championship Game
Winner of Game #11
vs.
Winner of Game #12

But Is It "Fair"?

This tournament model has the advantage of maintaining the "integrity" of current system. In other words, the worst teams still have the best chance to earn the #1 pick. But they actually have to earn it -- on the basketball court.

This table shows the chance of each team getting the #1 pick using this tournament format, compared to the chance currently given to them by the NBA in the lottery:

LotteryTournamentWestern ConferenceEastern ConferenceTournamentLottery
0.5% 0.6%Suns (48-34)Knicks (37-45)0.7%0.7%
0.6% 0.6%Timberwolves (40-42)Cavaliers (33-49)0.8%1.7%
0.8% 1.0%  Nuggets (36-46)Pistons (29-53)1.5%2.8%
1.1% 2.3% Pelicans (33-49)Celtics (25-57)2.9%10.3%
4.3% 4.4%Kings (28-54)Magic (23-59)6.6%15.6%
6.3% 10.7%Lakers (27-55)76ers (19-63)13.6%19.9%
10.4% 24.3%Jazz (25-57)Bucks (15-67)29.4%25.0%

The End of Tanking?

Because the tournament format requires that you actually win at least 2 games in order to win the #1 pick, tanking is discouraged. A bad record gives you a better position in the tournament, but you still need a team good enough to win.

Friday, April 18, 2014

It's Finally Time For The Redskins To Change Their Name

Europeans came to America, committed genocide against the societies that lived here, adopted a racial slur for these people, and then assigned that slur to the NFL team in our nation's capital. Even political conservatives like Charles Krauthammer believe that the team's name is "unmistakably patronizing and demeaning".

It's sad and horrible and shameful. It's as if the capital of Germany had a soccer team called the Berlin Kikes. Yes, it really is that bad. If you don't think it's that bad, it's only because you've gotten used to it.

But until now, we haven't had the cojones to change the name, because the Redskins haven't sucked badly enough. Nobody wants to change the name of their team when they make the playoffs and have the league's most exciting player under center (as was true in 2012, with a healthy Robert Griffin III at quarterback).

But after you go 3-13 and lose your last 8 games, your team is an embarrassment. And a name change starts to look pretty good. The last-place Seattle Supersonics changed their name (and city) in 2009. Two years later, they were in the NBA finals.

The Western Conference Champion Oklahoma Thunder (formerly the last-place Seattle Supersonics)

Picking a New Name

Thankfully, the Redskins' new name is obvious: the Washington Pitbulls.


The NFL team in our nation's capital needs to have a distinctly American name. We can't call them the "Eagles" or the "Patriots", because those names are already taken by teams within a 6-hour train ride. And we don't want to end up with a uniquely uninspiring name like the "Nationals" or "Senators" or "Capitals".

If you have been to D.C., you know that it is not a city about nature. Washington D.C. is not a showcase for pristine lakes and mountain views. It is not Portland or Denver or San Diego. You can't refer to a team from our nation's capital as the "Grizzlies" or the "Rockies". At the least, you can't do it with a straight face.

Washington is a city built around people: politicians and pundits, lobbyists and lawyers. It is a city of stubborn partisans who pick a cause, clamp down, and don't let go. It is, simply put, a city of pit bulls.


And a city of pit bulls is the appropriate capital for a country that revolves around our dogs. We love our dogs more than we love our people. We just cut $5 billion from SNAP (aka "food stamps") but we spend more than $30 billion each year on our dogs.

Mitt Romney lost the 2012 election because he strapped the family dog to the roof of his car. If he had done the same thing to one of his five sons, he would probably be in the White House right now.

          

The pit bull is the only truly American dog. "Pit bull" isn't even an official breed. Instead, the name refers to a variety of mutts that are loosely related to the American Staffordshire Terrier, Staffordshire Bull Terrier or the American Bulldog.

And just like Americans, pit bulls can be white or black, yellow or brown, large or small, energetic or lazy. It's time for the Redskins to change their name, and there is only one logical choice.


Thursday, February 20, 2014

Unnecessary Quotation Marks

Photo by "Camille" at UnnecessaryQuotes.com
In writing e-mails to people for whom English is not their "native language", I have found it quite useful to use "unnecessary quotation marks" to "emphasize a point" or demarcate an "important term". 

Quotes have proven more useful than capitalization or italicization, because Korean doesn't have capital letters or italics. Wikipedia claims that Koreans puts dots above each syllable block for emphasis but it also says "[citation needed]". And I certainly don't want to SCREAM at a colleague, just because THEY DON'T HAVE THE COMMON COURTESY TO SPEAK ENGLISH.

So the next time you are driving through Alabama and you see a sign for "pickled eggs" at a "restaurant", consider the fact that for Sally May Jenkins of Tuscaloosa, English may not be her native tongue. You don't have to get out of the car and "urinate" on her "sign" just because you are "very angry".

Simply go inside and kindly inquire as to what Sally May's first language is. Then "listen" to her. This will go a "long way" towards mending the "antipathy" that currently "exists" between the "educated elite" and the "ignorant pig fuckers".

You're welcome.

P.S. My reference above to "common courtesy" was taken from this Steve Martin bit.

Monday, February 3, 2014

Making The Pro Bowl Matter

If the NFL wants to boost ratings for the Pro Bowl, they need to make it count for something.

NFL fans are serious. They will show up in sub-zero weather to root for a last-place team. But they won't bother to turn on the TV for an exhibition game that doesn't have any effect on the actual season.

The solution: Give the top draft picks to the conference that wins the Pro Bowl.

Won-Loss records would still be used to rank teams within each conference. But the Pro Bowl winner is guaranteed to get the #1 pick.

For example, this is the current draft order for the 2014 NFL draft:

Pick #
Team
Pick #
Team
1
Houston Texans (AFC)
17
Dallas Cowboys (NFC)
2
St. Louis Rams (NFC)
18
New York Jets (AFC)
3
Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC)
19
Miami Dolphins (AFC)
4
Cleveland Browns (NFC)
20
Arizona Cardinals (NFC)
5
Oakland Raiders (AFC)
21
Green Bay Packers (NFC)
6
Atlanta Falcons (NFC)
22
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)
7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)
23
Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)
8
Minnesota Vikings (NFC)
24
Cincinnati Bengals (AFC)
9
Buffalo Bills (AFC)
25
San Diego Chargers (AFC)
10
Detroit Lions (NFC)
26
Indianapolis Colts (AFC)
11
Tennessee Titans (AFC)
27
New Orleans Saints (NFC)
12
New York Giants (NFC)
28
Carolina Panthers (NFC)
13
St. Louis Rams (NFC)
29
New England Patriots (AFC)
14
Chicago Bears (NFC)
30
San Francisco 49ers (NFC)
15
Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC)
31
Denver Broncos (AFC)
16
Baltimore Ravens (AFC)
32
Seattle Seahawks (NFC)

If this rule had been in place, and the AFC had won, this would be the resulting draft order:

Pick #
Team
Pick #
Team
1
Houston Texans (AFC)
17
St. Louis Rams (NFC)
2
Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC)
18
Atlanta Falcons (NFC)
3
Cleveland Browns (AFC)
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)
4
Oakland Raiders (AFC)
20
Minnesota Vikings (NFC)
5
Buffalo Bills (AFC)
21
Detroit Lions (NFC)
6
Tennessee Titans (AFC)
22
New York Giants (NFC)
7
Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC)
23
St. Louis Rams (NFC)
8
Baltimore Ravens (AFC)
24
Chicago Bears (NFC)
9
New York Jets (AFC)
25
Dallas Cowboys (NFC)
10
Miami Dolphins (AFC)
26
Arizona Cardinals (NFC)
11
Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)
27
Green Bay Packers (NFC)
12
Cincinnati Bengals (AFC)
28
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)
13
San Diego Chargers (AFC)
29
New Orleans Saints (NFC)
14
Indianapolis Colts (AFC)
30
Carolina Panthers (NFC)
15
New England Patriots (AFC)
31
San Francisco 49ers (NFC)
16
Denver Broncos (AFC)
32
Seattle Seahawks (NFC)

And this would be the draft order if the NFC had won:

Pick #
Team
Pick #
Team
1
St. Louis Rams (NFC)
17
Houston Texans (AFC)
2
Atlanta Falcons (NFC)
18
Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC)
3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)
19
Cleveland Browns (AFC)
4
Minnesota Vikings (NFC)
20
Oakland Raiders (AFC)
5
Detroit Lions (NFC)
21
Buffalo Bills (AFC)
6
New York Giants (NFC)
22
Tennessee Titans (AFC)
7
St. Louis Rams (NFC)
23
Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC)
8
Chicago Bears (NFC)
24
Baltimore Ravens (AFC)
9
Dallas Cowboys (NFC)
25
New York Jets (AFC)
10
Arizona Cardinals (NFC)
26
Miami Dolphins (AFC)
11
Green Bay Packers (NFC)
27
Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)
12
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)
28
Cincinnati Bengals (AFC)
13
New Orleans Saints (NFC)
29
San Diego Chargers (AFC)
14
Carolina Panthers (NFC)
30
Indianapolis Colts (AFC)
15
San Francisco 49ers (NFC)
31
New England Patriots (AFC)
16
Seattle Seahawks (NFC)
32
Denver Broncos (AFC)

This has the additional advantage of eliminating worries about teams "tanking". There's no point in intentionally losing games to get the #1 pick if you might drop to pick #17 after the Pro Bowl.

But, unlike some other other anti-tanking ideas, this system continues to give better picks to weaker teams, to help create parity.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Why Have The Red Sox Gotten Worse Over The Last Six Years?

It's 5:16 am. I'm debugging baseball code while listening to conservative talk radio (aka "NPR"). They just ran a story about multiple climate scientists scrambling to explain why global air temperatures have "dropped over the past 15 years."

I'm flabbergasted. Global temperatures are dropping? That would seem to contradict the opinions of 97.4% of all climate scientists.


As you can see in the graph, 1998 (exactly 15 years ago) just happened to be an extremely hot year. And the graph shows that it was a bit hotter than the most recent year for which we have data. So, technically, global temperatures have dropped over the last 15 years.

However, they have risen significantly over the last 16 years (and also over the last 14 years).

It's no surprise that you can find a temperature drop if you hand-pick the comparison year. This is called confirmation bias: people who want to deny climate change (which apparently now includes NPR) only pay attention to the one single year that supports their bias.

Why didn't they run a story on why temperatures have skyrocketed over the last 13 years, or the last 17 years? There are only three reasons that "scientists" would choose exactly 15 years and not look at any of the other data:

1) They are making shit up to get attention.
2) They are making shit up because the oil companies are paying them to.
3) They are morons.

This is insane. This is the logical equivalent of a New York Times article titled "Why Have The Red Sox Gotten Worse Over The Last Six Years?"

Well, gee. If you hand-pick the year they last won the World Series (2007), you can pretend that the Boston Red Sox are on a "downward trend" (from a winning percentage of .593 to .590).

This line of reasoning is, of course, absurd. The Red Sox have the best record in the American League, just one year after finishing in last place. Everyone in Red Sox Nation knows that the team has righted the ship and are the favorite to win the division.

But if you cherry-pick the data and only look at 2007, then you might think it's time to release Big Papi, trade away Clay Buchholz, and fire John Farrell and Ben Cherington. While you are calling the sports radio shows with this brilliant analysis, I'll be enjoying the Red Sox playoff run.

Thursday, August 22, 2013

On Plastic Straws...



Causes.com just sent me an email asking me to sign a petition to get Applebee's to stop giving out straws.

I guess I'm a total douchebag to want straws in my drinks when kids are starving in Africa. But I really like straws. In fact, this email got me thinking that I like straws so much that I should buy some for home. Way to go, Causes.com!

Applebee's says they will still give you straws if you ask, but I don't want to be the guy that's flagging someone down for a straw; that guy is a douchebag. The waitstaff is already earning 71% less than minimum wage. Is Applebee's going to give them a raise for the added hassle of stingily doling out straws? Or hire more waitstaff? I doubt it.

Also not sure why I would be eating at an Applebee's. But maybe I have a business trip in Texas and every single non-chain restaurant was wiped out by a hurricane. It could happen.

If I'm not going to get a yummy Diet Pepsi with a straw in it, I might as well order beer. Applebee's serves Bud Light which is so watery that I'll drink five of them. Then I'll drive drunk and kill a 7-year-old, all because I wanted to keep 0.3 grams of plastic out of a landfill.

The blood of that dead child is on your hands, Causes.com! Next time, pick a real cause.

Monday, July 29, 2013

The New Pig Meat Hierarchy

Spam

We know that unsolicited automated email is called "spam".

And now some people are trying to use the term "bacon" to describe approved automated email (such as updates from your Facebook page, or newsletters from companies or causes that you care about). This term is allegedly used because such e-mail is not "spam" but it still deserves a pork-related term because it is automated.

This is a travesty, and one we must fight with every fiber of our being. Bacon is the queen of meats. It isn't some cross between "meat I love" and "meat I hate".

I beseech you all to only use the term "bacon" to describe email that you are happy to get, from actual human friends. Here is a more accurate hierarchy:

1) Bacon: Original e-mail sent to you, and only you, by a friend -- such as an invitation to meet up for dinner, or an enthusiastic discussion of something you are collaborating on (such as a new barbecue recipe, or your father's 75th birthday party).

2) Ribs: E-mail sent to you by a friend, but copied to others, such as an invitation to a barbecue.

3) Canadian Bacon: Important but not necessarily well-received original e-mail, such as from your boss.

4) Ham: Automated e-mail from groups you care about, such as your local LARP or Ultimate Frisbee Yahoo Group.

5) Sausage: Automated non-profit e-mail that you have opted in for, such as from MoveOn.org.

6) Canned Ham: Automated commercial e-mail that you have opted in for (e.g. from Zappos or Staples).

7) Spam: Automated unsolicited e-mail.

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Kickstarter and Feature Creep


Kickstarter

An example of feature creep (by James Provost)
The current buzz in game dev circles is about the Double Fine Adventure launched on Kickstarter 18 months ago.

To make a long story short:
1) Development team goes on Kickstarter to raise $400K
2) No stretch goals were specified.
3) They raised more than $3.3 million.
4) Nine months after the "Estimated delivery" date, there is no game.
5) Uproar has ensued.
I can see while people are angry. If you don't deliver a crowd-funded project because the lead designer gets hit by a bus, that's understandable. But if it's because you have too much money, that looks really unprofessional to an outside observer.

I have some comments, but please note that I am not criticizing Tim Schafer and the Double Fine team. The game industry has people that are actually evil and I see no evidence that Double Fine has done anything immoral or intended to do anything immoral. I'm not a backer and I'm not in their shoes. Nevertheless, I am taking a moment to talk about another team's project because:

1) I believe that crowd-funding will, and should, play a major role in the future of game development.
2) The crowd-funding paradigm is still young, and we need to discuss and clarify what backers should expect from developers.
3) Feature creep is, in my experience, the single greatest enemy to successful game development.

The Pressure of Feature Creep

The Double Fine team expanded the scope of their project in an attempt to have the magnitude of the project match the magnitude of the funding level. As the scope of a project increases linearly, the complexity of the project tends to increase exponentially. Therefore, it's no surprise that the project slipped past the completion date that they originally promised, despite having much more money to work with.

Based on the high funding level, I can understand the extreme pressure felt to add features not originally specified (aka "feature creep"). To say that I "understand" is an understatement. I can viscerally feel the pressure just by looking at the funding level. Game designers always want to add as much as we can, and we want to deliver everything that the consumer expects, and more. So when I see that funding level, I feel the pressure of higher expectations, in my gut, even though I have nothing to do with the project.

However, I have felt the pressure of feature creep many times before, and I have gotten better and better at resisting it as I have gained experience in this industry. I have also gotten better at justifying such resistance to management, publishers and customers. My sanity and happiness have increased in direct proportion to my ability to resist feature creep.

Backer Expectations

In my opinion, the decision about whether or not to succumb to feature creep in this situation should be guided by the expectations of the project's backers. They are the ones "buying" the product, and they are the ones to whom you have promised to deliver a specified project on a specified timeline.

I have supported Kickstarter projects in the past, and I have never had an expectation that the scope of a project would increase if the funding exceeded expectations (unless this is explicitly specified with stretch goals). For me personally, I wouldn't have gotten mad if Double Fine had simply delivered what they promised and "pocketed" the extra money. If they are getting paid accordingly to do what they love, without having to work for a big evil publisher, they will almost certainly make more games. So any "extra" money is just going into those future products.

My logic on this is that the crowd-funding paradigm looks to me an awful like the "pre-ordering" paradigm. You pay ahead of time for a product, in exchange for some positive benefit. In software, this benefit might be a lower price or a bonus game level, or even just the assurance that you will get the game on launch day instead of having to waiting in line. This is the customer/publisher relationship. If a traditional game publisher has more pre-orders than planned, they don't expand their scope accordingly. In fact, the very idea is silly. If EA projects that Madden pre-sales will be 250K and they hit 300K, the development team doesn't run back to the studio and try to squeeze in an extra feature before launch.

But Crowdfunding is Different

However, there are reasons that this project can't be compared to traditional game development, and can't be compared to other Kickstarter projects:

1. The "pre-order" numbers are *very* public.
Yes, you could theoretically find out if Madden exceeded sales goals and then demand more features from EA. But in the crowdfunding scenario, the funding level is right there on the very page where you "buy" the product.

2) Crowdfunding is a new field that doesn't fit the current retail paradigm.
Rightly or wrongly, we put more trust in a Kickstarter team than we do in a big game publisher. And in return, rightly or wrongly, we expect that the Kickstarter team will act (as an economist would say) in an "irrational" manner, going out of their way to provide us with a quality product instead of only looking at the bottom line.

3) Software is different.
If you are Kickstarting a board game with a $10,000 funding goal and you get five times that, there isn't an expectation of scope creep. The game is probably already designed and the funding is being used to meet actual physical printing costs. More funding means you have to print more copies and spend most of that money. Because software distribution is perceived as "free", people expect that any "extra" money should go back into product development.

The problem is that when you internalize the above points, you end up succumbing to feature creep and promising more than you can deliver. This puts you in a horrible situation where you are not only working 80-hour weeks, your customers are also mad at you for not delivering what you originally promised.

Expanding Scope While Limiting Risk

Assuming you do get caught up in the internal and external pressure for feature creep, what are some ways to address this pressure without exponentially increasing the complexity of the project? Some ideas:

  1. Hire more QA. Most gamers would rather have a modestly-scoped game with no bugs than an ambitious but buggy release.
  2. Run a serious beta test, run entirely by staff outside the existing development team, so you don't distract them from their efforts to reach the finish line.
  3. Hire customer service folks to ensure that the game runs properly for everyone after launch, and that problems and requests are responded appropriately. Design teams always underestimate the problems that will occur with downloads, billing, shipping physical product, and delivering patches and updates.
  4. Promise an update to the game 6 months after launch that incorporates feedback, fixes game balance etc.
Anyway, I think this is really interesting discussion and a really important one for our industry. Not only because crowdfunding is becoming an important path to market, but because feature creep has always been our worst enemy.

If I ran my company the way they tell you to in business school, we might have 50 employees. On the flip side, if I always tried to expand scope to meet every single customer's request or expectation, we would be out of business. As one of example of this, I know for a fact that I have customers who would earnestly complain that I took 30 minutes out of my day (on a Sunday) to write this post, instead of working on the actual product.

Finding a balance is tricky. I feel for Double Fine, I wish them success, and I hope they can take the outrage with grain of salt and make the game they want to make.

Monday, June 3, 2013

Today's Only Game Of Thrones Blog Post With No Spoilers

Apparently, something big happened in Game Of Thrones last night. I don't know what it was, and I'm not going to find out. I have stopped watching Game Of Thrones for two reasons:

1) I don't watch shows or movies that include torture or rape. I watch shows where bad guys get punched and shot, but not where they get tortured. If a bad guy is attacking your family, it's OK to shoot him. It's never OK to torture or rape him.

I don't ignore torture and rape in the real world. I know they exist and make some effort to stop them (such as by being a member of Amnesty International). But I don't want it in my fiction.

2) I believe that Game Of Thrones is rape culture. I'm sure this point will be more controversial than #1, as my circle of friends includes an above-average number of feminists and an above-average number of GoT viewers. I don't have the time to construct a cogent argument (especially since I promised no spoilers), so I will just leave this point open for discussion...

There's a lot I like about GoT. I look forward to renting it on Netflix five years from now, after the torture and rape culture have been edited out.

Sunday, May 19, 2013

Top 22 Nicknames for Benedict Cumberbatch

Photo by Sam Hughes
22. King Of The Cumberbitches!
21. Cummerbund Bandersnatch 
20. Spongebob Squarebatch
19. Vorpal Blade Snicker Snack
18. Jinglebear Briarpatch
17. Sasquatch Pancakestack
16. Litterbox Slumber Cat
15. Grammy Pick Grandmaster Flash
14. Bandicoot Crash and Snatch
13. Turtleneck Dumbledore
12. Peregrine Bumpershoot
11. Parlortrick Chunter Prat
10. Boffin Dick Baby Match
9. River Styx Titan Clash
8. Bend-It-Like-Beckham Snatch
7. Bubble Tea Cabbage Patch
6. Benny Hill Camelsnatch
5. Thistledick Lumberjack
4. Bento Box Bumble Batch
3. Watercloset Chimneysweep
2. Bendy-Dick Cum-On-My-Baps
1. D'Brickashaw Ferguson

Note: "Bendy-Dick Cum-On-My-Baps" was an actual school nickname. If you don't know what "baps" are, ask a Brit.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Ayn Rand's Utopia


We all know that libertarians believe in drug legalization, the free market, free speech and freedom of religion.

But what everyone forgets is that libertarianism effectively prohibits pollution of any kind (air, water, noise, etc.). It doesn't just tax it or discourage it. It makes it virtually impossible.

Philosophers from Thomas Paine and William Godwin to Robert Nozick and Frederick Hayek have written much about libertarianism. But I'm going to quote Ayn Rand, as she is the modern face of libertarianism (and the woman for which Ron Paul named his son):

"The basic right of man is to live his life without being harmed by others. This implies the requirement to refrain from harming others as well, since all men share this most fundamental right."


Ayn Rand
This isn't just Rand's philosophy. This is the core tenet of libertarianism and laissez-faire capitalism. This is why libertarians are against taxing people to provide social programs. By using force to take someone's money, you are harming them and violating the "basic right of man".

However, modern Objectivists rarely point out that burning coal or pouring chemicals into a river causes harm to others in the same way that taxation does. And like taxation, pollution uses force to cause harm. According to the World Health Organization, air pollution from burning coal kills more than 1 million people every year, and causes physical harm and monetary harm (aka "theft") to many many more. In Rand's philosophy, pollution is the moral equivalent of robbery or rape.

So, what is the role of government when one individual (the owner of a coal plant) is causing harm to others against their will?

Modern "right-wing" politicians (aka "the Republican party") advocate that we should ignore these harms. The coal plant is providing electricity and creating jobs, and one could argue that this benefit outweighs the harm (to the society as a whole, if not to each individual). Despite what Paul Ryan and the Koch Brothers would like you to believe, this is not "free market capitalism". This is tyranny. This is what Ayn Rand calls "collectivism" -- the government using force to decide that the "needs" of the entire society are more important that the rights of any one individual.

Modern "left-wing" politicians (aka "the Democratic party") advocate that we should "regulate" these harms. This means using government force to reduce "excessive" pollution, and to tax the rest. If the scientists at the EPA decide that burning coal causes $100 worth of damage to every American, then left-wing politicians will levy a tax on coal burning equal to $100 per American. They could then turn around and give this money to each person that was harmed. However, more often, that money is used to pay for government programs that attempt to ameliorate that harm (e.g. health care) or reduce future harm (e.g. investment in "alternative" energy).

As with the Republican solution, the Democrat's solution is also "collectivism". It is the government using force to put the collective good ahead of individual rights.

Libertarianism holds that both the Republicans and Democrats are allowing (and even encouraging) a moral wrong. No one has a right to harm any other person without using the free market to reach an agreement beforehand. I can't just burn down your house because I feel like it, and then pay you $100 the next day because I feel that this is the "fair value" of your home. If you want to sell me your house, you are free to do so. But we must come to an agreement *before* I burn down your house.

In the case of pollution, this means that every single person harmed by pollution must agree to it beforehand. As one individual, I could decide that I'm willing to let a coal plant pollute my air if they pay me $100 each year. Every single person could reach this same agreement with the coal company. This is the free market at work: individuals determining how much something (such as clean air) is worth *before* they sell it.

It's even possible that everyone would come together and legally delegate a representative to negotiate on their behalf. This is what unions do, and it allows the workers to continue to do their jobs and live their lives while a fair market price is determined.

However, unions are voluntary organizations. If you don't want to work for GM, you don't have to. But breathing isn't voluntary. If you pollute my air, you are using force to harm me, and it is the legitimate role of any libertarian government to stop that harm (by using the courts and police force to physically prevent this harm from taking place).

As it is virtually impossible that 7 billion humans will all agree to have their air polluted, libertarianism and pollution are incompatible in the real world (unless the polluter finds a way to contain the pollution in a bubble built on private land, or to stop the pollution at the source -- but then it isn't really "pollution", is it?)

At this point, libertarians might choose to compromise their principles in exchange for efficiency. For example, I would like to be able to drive a gasoline-powered vehicle so that I can visit my family on Thanksgiving. Therefore, I elect a government that enforces my "right" to pollute, even though I am violating the rights of others. This is democracy. But it isn't libertarianism.

Monday, February 18, 2013

The One-Ton Offensive Line?


The NFL is getting out of hand. You can't play on the line of scrimmage unless you top 350 pounds. It's making the game less fun to watch and less fun to play. And leading to more injuries. But the worst part is that high school kids around the country think they need to weigh that much for a shot at playing in Division I in college -- and to have ANY shot at playing in the pros. And the sad fact is that they are right.

It's time to institute a 300-pound weight limit. At first thought, that seems unfair, even discriminatory. Research shows that the obese have trouble competing for everyday jobs, and now we're going to lock them out of the NFL?!?

But we all know that linemen aren't plucked from the ranks of couch potatoes. They are talented athletes that have added mountains of muscle and fat in high school and college just so they can compete. And there are other sports with weight limits -- like boxing, wrestling, weightlifting, and of course Tug-O-War.

I'd recommend phasing this rule in slowly. Start at 360 and drop it down by 10 pounds per year. If you announced it tomorrow, high school and college kids around the country would immediately be trying to get UNDER 300 pounds, so they could play in the NFL. It would do wonders for the 99% of these kids that never even make it to draft day and just end as fat guys in their twenties with sore backs and bad knees.

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Dear Media, You Just Got Played


"Journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed: everything else is public relations."
          - George Orwell

Last week, Maker's Mark Whiskey announced that, because of such incredible demand for their product, they would be forced to add a "touch more water" to their 90 proof whiskey, lowering it's alcohol content from 45% (90 proof) to 42% (84 proof).

A week later, they claimed to abort this strategy because of overwhelming customer feedback. To quote the grandson of the company's founder: "We've been tremendously humbled over the last week or so. You spoke. We listened."

Both stories were covered by everyone was from Fox News to USA Today to NPR.

I call bullshit.

You may notice the similarity of the coverage from each "news" outlet, as if they each just cut and paste from the same press release.

This is the message that Maker's Mark got out to hundreds of millions of consumers in the last 7 days, for free:

  1. Our product is of such high quality that our sales have far exceeded expectations.
  2. This surprising popularity means we will have trouble distilling our whiskey to the exacting standings we have used for 3 generations.
  3. Our customers care about quality. So much so that they demanded that we continue to produce the highest quality whiskey we can, no matter what it costs!
  4. We care. We listened to our customers. We will continue to meet your demands for great whiskey, even if it cuts into our bottom line. Because ... we ... care.

One question for Maker's Mark. If your product quality is so high that it sells itself, and demand grows much faster than your ability to keep pace with production, why do you continue to spend $25 million per year on advertising that artificially pumps up demand?

I'm sorry for bringing additional attention to this scam. But hopefully it will shed light on this story for what it really is -- yet another company playing the media like a fiddle.

I'm not a whiskey drinker. If I need to get drunk, Bud Light does the job. If I'm thirsty and need a glass of water, Bud Light does the job.

But if you are a whiskey consumer, please take a minute to go to your locally owned spirits shoppe and purchase something from a manufacturer that puts their money into their product, instead of pumping it into advertising and deceitful PR campaigns.

Friday, February 8, 2013

Baseball Mogul 2014: New Uniforms

A very cool feature this year is new animations for the batter and pitcher. I realize that Baseball Mogul isn't about cutting-edge graphics. But it was pretty annoying that every single batter and pitcher was a white guy with bad posture and a dark blue helmet.

Old Animations
In case you were wondering, the old batter animation (and pitcher animation) was me. Filmed in my backyard, with a giant green tarp used as a green screen. There was snow on the ground.

So, this year features a new animation system, with the ability to change uniform colors and skin colors.

Examples of New Animations
The cool thing is that this feature is being added by an artist and another programmer, with very little effort on my part. So I get to keep working on the meat of the game.