Thursday, August 29, 2013

Why Have The Red Sox Gotten Worse Over The Last Six Years?

It's 5:16 am. I'm debugging baseball code while listening to conservative talk radio (aka "NPR"). They just ran a story about multiple climate scientists scrambling to explain why global air temperatures have "dropped over the past 15 years."

I'm flabbergasted. Global temperatures are dropping? That would seem to contradict the opinions of 97.4% of all climate scientists.


As you can see in the graph, 1998 (exactly 15 years ago) just happened to be an extremely hot year. And the graph shows that it was a bit hotter than the most recent year for which we have data. So, technically, global temperatures have dropped over the last 15 years.

However, they have risen significantly over the last 16 years (and also over the last 14 years).

It's no surprise that you can find a temperature drop if you hand-pick the comparison year. This is called confirmation bias: people who want to deny climate change (which apparently now includes NPR) only pay attention to the one single year that supports their bias.

Why didn't they run a story on why temperatures have skyrocketed over the last 13 years, or the last 17 years? There are only three reasons that "scientists" would choose exactly 15 years and not look at any of the other data:

1) They are making shit up to get attention.
2) They are making shit up because the oil companies are paying them to.
3) They are morons.

This is insane. This is the logical equivalent of a New York Times article titled "Why Have The Red Sox Gotten Worse Over The Last Six Years?"

Well, gee. If you hand-pick the year they last won the World Series (2007), you can pretend that the Boston Red Sox are on a "downward trend" (from a winning percentage of .593 to .590).

This line of reasoning is, of course, absurd. The Red Sox have the best record in the American League, just one year after finishing in last place. Everyone in Red Sox Nation knows that the team has righted the ship and are the favorite to win the division.

But if you cherry-pick the data and only look at 2007, then you might think it's time to release Big Papi, trade away Clay Buchholz, and fire John Farrell and Ben Cherington. While you are calling the sports radio shows with this brilliant analysis, I'll be enjoying the Red Sox playoff run.

Thursday, August 22, 2013

On Plastic Straws...



Causes.com just sent me an email asking me to sign a petition to get Applebee's to stop giving out straws.

I guess I'm a total douchebag to want straws in my drinks when kids are starving in Africa. But I really like straws. In fact, this email got me thinking that I like straws so much that I should buy some for home. Way to go, Causes.com!

Applebee's says they will still give you straws if you ask, but I don't want to be the guy that's flagging someone down for a straw; that guy is a douchebag. The waitstaff is already earning 71% less than minimum wage. Is Applebee's going to give them a raise for the added hassle of stingily doling out straws? Or hire more waitstaff? I doubt it.

Also not sure why I would be eating at an Applebee's. But maybe I have a business trip in Texas and every single non-chain restaurant was wiped out by a hurricane. It could happen.

If I'm not going to get a yummy Diet Pepsi with a straw in it, I might as well order beer. Applebee's serves Bud Light which is so watery that I'll drink five of them. Then I'll drive drunk and kill a 7-year-old, all because I wanted to keep 0.3 grams of plastic out of a landfill.

The blood of that dead child is on your hands, Causes.com! Next time, pick a real cause.

Monday, July 29, 2013

The New Pig Meat Hierarchy

Spam

We know that unsolicited automated email is called "spam".

And now some people are trying to use the term "bacon" to describe approved automated email (such as updates from your Facebook page, or newsletters from companies or causes that you care about). This term is allegedly used because such e-mail is not "spam" but it still deserves a pork-related term because it is automated.

This is a travesty, and one we must fight with every fiber of our being. Bacon is the queen of meats. It isn't some cross between "meat I love" and "meat I hate".

I beseech you all to only use the term "bacon" to describe email that you are happy to get, from actual human friends. Here is a more accurate hierarchy:

1) Bacon: Original e-mail sent to you, and only you, by a friend -- such as an invitation to meet up for dinner, or an enthusiastic discussion of something you are collaborating on (such as a new barbecue recipe, or your father's 75th birthday party).

2) Ribs: E-mail sent to you by a friend, but copied to others, such as an invitation to a barbecue.

3) Canadian Bacon: Important but not necessarily well-received original e-mail, such as from your boss.

4) Ham: Automated e-mail from groups you care about, such as your local LARP or Ultimate Frisbee Yahoo Group.

5) Sausage: Automated non-profit e-mail that you have opted in for, such as from MoveOn.org.

6) Canned Ham: Automated commercial e-mail that you have opted in for (e.g. from Zappos or Staples).

7) Spam: Automated unsolicited e-mail.

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Kickstarter and Feature Creep


Kickstarter

An example of feature creep (by James Provost)
The current buzz in game dev circles is about the Double Fine Adventure launched on Kickstarter 18 months ago.

To make a long story short:
1) Development team goes on Kickstarter to raise $400K
2) No stretch goals were specified.
3) They raised more than $3.3 million.
4) Nine months after the "Estimated delivery" date, there is no game.
5) Uproar has ensued.
I can see while people are angry. If you don't deliver a crowd-funded project because the lead designer gets hit by a bus, that's understandable. But if it's because you have too much money, that looks really unprofessional to an outside observer.

I have some comments, but please note that I am not criticizing Tim Schafer and the Double Fine team. The game industry has people that are actually evil and I see no evidence that Double Fine has done anything immoral or intended to do anything immoral. I'm not a backer and I'm not in their shoes. Nevertheless, I am taking a moment to talk about another team's project because:

1) I believe that crowd-funding will, and should, play a major role in the future of game development.
2) The crowd-funding paradigm is still young, and we need to discuss and clarify what backers should expect from developers.
3) Feature creep is, in my experience, the single greatest enemy to successful game development.

The Pressure of Feature Creep

The Double Fine team expanded the scope of their project in an attempt to have the magnitude of the project match the magnitude of the funding level. As the scope of a project increases linearly, the complexity of the project tends to increase exponentially. Therefore, it's no surprise that the project slipped past the completion date that they originally promised, despite having much more money to work with.

Based on the high funding level, I can understand the extreme pressure felt to add features not originally specified (aka "feature creep"). To say that I "understand" is an understatement. I can viscerally feel the pressure just by looking at the funding level. Game designers always want to add as much as we can, and we want to deliver everything that the consumer expects, and more. So when I see that funding level, I feel the pressure of higher expectations, in my gut, even though I have nothing to do with the project.

However, I have felt the pressure of feature creep many times before, and I have gotten better and better at resisting it as I have gained experience in this industry. I have also gotten better at justifying such resistance to management, publishers and customers. My sanity and happiness have increased in direct proportion to my ability to resist feature creep.

Backer Expectations

In my opinion, the decision about whether or not to succumb to feature creep in this situation should be guided by the expectations of the project's backers. They are the ones "buying" the product, and they are the ones to whom you have promised to deliver a specified project on a specified timeline.

I have supported Kickstarter projects in the past, and I have never had an expectation that the scope of a project would increase if the funding exceeded expectations (unless this is explicitly specified with stretch goals). For me personally, I wouldn't have gotten mad if Double Fine had simply delivered what they promised and "pocketed" the extra money. If they are getting paid accordingly to do what they love, without having to work for a big evil publisher, they will almost certainly make more games. So any "extra" money is just going into those future products.

My logic on this is that the crowd-funding paradigm looks to me an awful like the "pre-ordering" paradigm. You pay ahead of time for a product, in exchange for some positive benefit. In software, this benefit might be a lower price or a bonus game level, or even just the assurance that you will get the game on launch day instead of having to waiting in line. This is the customer/publisher relationship. If a traditional game publisher has more pre-orders than planned, they don't expand their scope accordingly. In fact, the very idea is silly. If EA projects that Madden pre-sales will be 250K and they hit 300K, the development team doesn't run back to the studio and try to squeeze in an extra feature before launch.

But Crowdfunding is Different

However, there are reasons that this project can't be compared to traditional game development, and can't be compared to other Kickstarter projects:

1. The "pre-order" numbers are *very* public.
Yes, you could theoretically find out if Madden exceeded sales goals and then demand more features from EA. But in the crowdfunding scenario, the funding level is right there on the very page where you "buy" the product.

2) Crowdfunding is a new field that doesn't fit the current retail paradigm.
Rightly or wrongly, we put more trust in a Kickstarter team than we do in a big game publisher. And in return, rightly or wrongly, we expect that the Kickstarter team will act (as an economist would say) in an "irrational" manner, going out of their way to provide us with a quality product instead of only looking at the bottom line.

3) Software is different.
If you are Kickstarting a board game with a $10,000 funding goal and you get five times that, there isn't an expectation of scope creep. The game is probably already designed and the funding is being used to meet actual physical printing costs. More funding means you have to print more copies and spend most of that money. Because software distribution is perceived as "free", people expect that any "extra" money should go back into product development.

The problem is that when you internalize the above points, you end up succumbing to feature creep and promising more than you can deliver. This puts you in a horrible situation where you are not only working 80-hour weeks, your customers are also mad at you for not delivering what you originally promised.

Expanding Scope While Limiting Risk

Assuming you do get caught up in the internal and external pressure for feature creep, what are some ways to address this pressure without exponentially increasing the complexity of the project? Some ideas:

  1. Hire more QA. Most gamers would rather have a modestly-scoped game with no bugs than an ambitious but buggy release.
  2. Run a serious beta test, run entirely by staff outside the existing development team, so you don't distract them from their efforts to reach the finish line.
  3. Hire customer service folks to ensure that the game runs properly for everyone after launch, and that problems and requests are responded appropriately. Design teams always underestimate the problems that will occur with downloads, billing, shipping physical product, and delivering patches and updates.
  4. Promise an update to the game 6 months after launch that incorporates feedback, fixes game balance etc.
Anyway, I think this is really interesting discussion and a really important one for our industry. Not only because crowdfunding is becoming an important path to market, but because feature creep has always been our worst enemy.

If I ran my company the way they tell you to in business school, we might have 50 employees. On the flip side, if I always tried to expand scope to meet every single customer's request or expectation, we would be out of business. As one of example of this, I know for a fact that I have customers who would earnestly complain that I took 30 minutes out of my day (on a Sunday) to write this post, instead of working on the actual product.

Finding a balance is tricky. I feel for Double Fine, I wish them success, and I hope they can take the outrage with grain of salt and make the game they want to make.

Monday, June 3, 2013

Today's Only Game Of Thrones Blog Post With No Spoilers

Apparently, something big happened in Game Of Thrones last night. I don't know what it was, and I'm not going to find out. I have stopped watching Game Of Thrones for two reasons:

1) I don't watch shows or movies that include torture or rape. I watch shows where bad guys get punched and shot, but not where they get tortured. If a bad guy is attacking your family, it's OK to shoot him. It's never OK to torture or rape him.

I don't ignore torture and rape in the real world. I know they exist and make some effort to stop them (such as by being a member of Amnesty International). But I don't want it in my fiction.

2) I believe that Game Of Thrones is rape culture. I'm sure this point will be more controversial than #1, as my circle of friends includes an above-average number of feminists and an above-average number of GoT viewers. I don't have the time to construct a cogent argument (especially since I promised no spoilers), so I will just leave this point open for discussion...

There's a lot I like about GoT. I look forward to renting it on Netflix five years from now, after the torture and rape culture have been edited out.

Sunday, May 19, 2013

Top 22 Nicknames for Benedict Cumberbatch

Photo by Sam Hughes
22. King Of The Cumberbitches!
21. Cummerbund Bandersnatch 
20. Spongebob Squarebatch
19. Vorpal Blade Snicker Snack
18. Jinglebear Briarpatch
17. Sasquatch Pancakestack
16. Litterbox Slumber Cat
15. Grammy Pick Grandmaster Flash
14. Bandicoot Crash and Snatch
13. Turtleneck Dumbledore
12. Peregrine Bumpershoot
11. Parlortrick Chunter Prat
10. Boffin Dick Baby Match
9. River Styx Titan Clash
8. Bend-It-Like-Beckham Snatch
7. Bubble Tea Cabbage Patch
6. Benny Hill Camelsnatch
5. Thistledick Lumberjack
4. Bento Box Bumble Batch
3. Watercloset Chimneysweep
2. Bendy-Dick Cum-On-My-Baps
1. D'Brickashaw Ferguson

Note: "Bendy-Dick Cum-On-My-Baps" was an actual school nickname. If you don't know what "baps" are, ask a Brit.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Ayn Rand's Utopia


We all know that libertarians believe in drug legalization, the free market, free speech and freedom of religion.

But what everyone forgets is that libertarianism effectively prohibits pollution of any kind (air, water, noise, etc.). It doesn't just tax it or discourage it. It makes it virtually impossible.

Philosophers from Thomas Paine and William Godwin to Robert Nozick and Frederick Hayek have written much about libertarianism. But I'm going to quote Ayn Rand, as she is the modern face of libertarianism (and the woman for which Ron Paul named his son):

"The basic right of man is to live his life without being harmed by others. This implies the requirement to refrain from harming others as well, since all men share this most fundamental right."


Ayn Rand
This isn't just Rand's philosophy. This is the core tenet of libertarianism and laissez-faire capitalism. This is why libertarians are against taxing people to provide social programs. By using force to take someone's money, you are harming them and violating the "basic right of man".

However, modern Objectivists rarely point out that burning coal or pouring chemicals into a river causes harm to others in the same way that taxation does. And like taxation, pollution uses force to cause harm. According to the World Health Organization, air pollution from burning coal kills more than 1 million people every year, and causes physical harm and monetary harm (aka "theft") to many many more. In Rand's philosophy, pollution is the moral equivalent of robbery or rape.

So, what is the role of government when one individual (the owner of a coal plant) is causing harm to others against their will?

Modern "right-wing" politicians (aka "the Republican party") advocate that we should ignore these harms. The coal plant is providing electricity and creating jobs, and one could argue that this benefit outweighs the harm (to the society as a whole, if not to each individual). Despite what Paul Ryan and the Koch Brothers would like you to believe, this is not "free market capitalism". This is tyranny. This is what Ayn Rand calls "collectivism" -- the government using force to decide that the "needs" of the entire society are more important that the rights of any one individual.

Modern "left-wing" politicians (aka "the Democratic party") advocate that we should "regulate" these harms. This means using government force to reduce "excessive" pollution, and to tax the rest. If the scientists at the EPA decide that burning coal causes $100 worth of damage to every American, then left-wing politicians will levy a tax on coal burning equal to $100 per American. They could then turn around and give this money to each person that was harmed. However, more often, that money is used to pay for government programs that attempt to ameliorate that harm (e.g. health care) or reduce future harm (e.g. investment in "alternative" energy).

As with the Republican solution, the Democrat's solution is also "collectivism". It is the government using force to put the collective good ahead of individual rights.

Libertarianism holds that both the Republicans and Democrats are allowing (and even encouraging) a moral wrong. No one has a right to harm any other person without using the free market to reach an agreement beforehand. I can't just burn down your house because I feel like it, and then pay you $100 the next day because I feel that this is the "fair value" of your home. If you want to sell me your house, you are free to do so. But we must come to an agreement *before* I burn down your house.

In the case of pollution, this means that every single person harmed by pollution must agree to it beforehand. As one individual, I could decide that I'm willing to let a coal plant pollute my air if they pay me $100 each year. Every single person could reach this same agreement with the coal company. This is the free market at work: individuals determining how much something (such as clean air) is worth *before* they sell it.

It's even possible that everyone would come together and legally delegate a representative to negotiate on their behalf. This is what unions do, and it allows the workers to continue to do their jobs and live their lives while a fair market price is determined.

However, unions are voluntary organizations. If you don't want to work for GM, you don't have to. But breathing isn't voluntary. If you pollute my air, you are using force to harm me, and it is the legitimate role of any libertarian government to stop that harm (by using the courts and police force to physically prevent this harm from taking place).

As it is virtually impossible that 7 billion humans will all agree to have their air polluted, libertarianism and pollution are incompatible in the real world (unless the polluter finds a way to contain the pollution in a bubble built on private land, or to stop the pollution at the source -- but then it isn't really "pollution", is it?)

At this point, libertarians might choose to compromise their principles in exchange for efficiency. For example, I would like to be able to drive a gasoline-powered vehicle so that I can visit my family on Thanksgiving. Therefore, I elect a government that enforces my "right" to pollute, even though I am violating the rights of others. This is democracy. But it isn't libertarianism.

Monday, February 18, 2013

The One-Ton Offensive Line?


The NFL is getting out of hand. You can't play on the line of scrimmage unless you top 350 pounds. It's making the game less fun to watch and less fun to play. And leading to more injuries. But the worst part is that high school kids around the country think they need to weigh that much for a shot at playing in Division I in college -- and to have ANY shot at playing in the pros. And the sad fact is that they are right.

It's time to institute a 300-pound weight limit. At first thought, that seems unfair, even discriminatory. Research shows that the obese have trouble competing for everyday jobs, and now we're going to lock them out of the NFL?!?

But we all know that linemen aren't plucked from the ranks of couch potatoes. They are talented athletes that have added mountains of muscle and fat in high school and college just so they can compete. And there are other sports with weight limits -- like boxing, wrestling, weightlifting, and of course Tug-O-War.

I'd recommend phasing this rule in slowly. Start at 360 and drop it down by 10 pounds per year. If you announced it tomorrow, high school and college kids around the country would immediately be trying to get UNDER 300 pounds, so they could play in the NFL. It would do wonders for the 99% of these kids that never even make it to draft day and just end as fat guys in their twenties with sore backs and bad knees.

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Dear Media, You Just Got Played


"Journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed: everything else is public relations."
          - George Orwell

Last week, Maker's Mark Whiskey announced that, because of such incredible demand for their product, they would be forced to add a "touch more water" to their 90 proof whiskey, lowering it's alcohol content from 45% (90 proof) to 42% (84 proof).

A week later, they claimed to abort this strategy because of overwhelming customer feedback. To quote the grandson of the company's founder: "We've been tremendously humbled over the last week or so. You spoke. We listened."

Both stories were covered by everyone was from Fox News to USA Today to NPR.

I call bullshit.

You may notice the similarity of the coverage from each "news" outlet, as if they each just cut and paste from the same press release.

This is the message that Maker's Mark got out to hundreds of millions of consumers in the last 7 days, for free:

  1. Our product is of such high quality that our sales have far exceeded expectations.
  2. This surprising popularity means we will have trouble distilling our whiskey to the exacting standings we have used for 3 generations.
  3. Our customers care about quality. So much so that they demanded that we continue to produce the highest quality whiskey we can, no matter what it costs!
  4. We care. We listened to our customers. We will continue to meet your demands for great whiskey, even if it cuts into our bottom line. Because ... we ... care.

One question for Maker's Mark. If your product quality is so high that it sells itself, and demand grows much faster than your ability to keep pace with production, why do you continue to spend $25 million per year on advertising that artificially pumps up demand?

I'm sorry for bringing additional attention to this scam. But hopefully it will shed light on this story for what it really is -- yet another company playing the media like a fiddle.

I'm not a whiskey drinker. If I need to get drunk, Bud Light does the job. If I'm thirsty and need a glass of water, Bud Light does the job.

But if you are a whiskey consumer, please take a minute to go to your locally owned spirits shoppe and purchase something from a manufacturer that puts their money into their product, instead of pumping it into advertising and deceitful PR campaigns.

Friday, February 8, 2013

Baseball Mogul 2014: New Uniforms

A very cool feature this year is new animations for the batter and pitcher. I realize that Baseball Mogul isn't about cutting-edge graphics. But it was pretty annoying that every single batter and pitcher was a white guy with bad posture and a dark blue helmet.

Old Animations
In case you were wondering, the old batter animation (and pitcher animation) was me. Filmed in my backyard, with a giant green tarp used as a green screen. There was snow on the ground.

So, this year features a new animation system, with the ability to change uniform colors and skin colors.

Examples of New Animations
The cool thing is that this feature is being added by an artist and another programmer, with very little effort on my part. So I get to keep working on the meat of the game.

Game Company Redesigns Chess

This week, "Hasbro Gaming" decided to redesign Monopoly in order to get some free publicity. They asked the internet which piece to remove (the iron) and what to replace it with (a cat - duh).

This caused us at Sports Mogul to think: "Hey, we
could use some free publicityare good at redesigning games!"

So, as a public service to the world, we've decided to bring the game of chess into the 21st century. With the help of the internet.

Step 1. We asked the internet to name their least favorite chess piece. The results:

Rank Least Favorite PieceVotes Percent
11The Knight652,510 3.16%
10The "Horsie"998,602 4.50%
9The Rook1,257,993 6.65%
8The Unicorn1,400,590 7.98%
7The Pawn2,042,532 9.66%
6Ringo2,272,338 10.91%
5Charmander2,654,760 12.10%
4The Queen2,996,974 14.10%
3The King3,110,278 17.09%
2Fluttershy4,110,707 22.56%
1The Bishop4,169,452 22.70%


A lot of people didn't understand the question. Apparently, the internet is filled with morons. You learn something new every day.

First, I am pleased with how popular the knight is. The knight could easily beat Jeb Bush in 2016.

Second, we found that 12% of the internet loves the bishop "because it looks like a penis". However, 19% of the internet is "creeped out" by the bishop "because it looks like a penis".

So, the bishop is gone.

Step 2: We asked the internet what to replace the bishop with. Results:

Rank New Chess PieceVotes Percent
10Chloe Kardashian1,266 0.03%
9Justin Bieber988,551 4.60%
8Anything "invented by a mom"1,021,080 5.65%
7Nate Silver1,678,915 8.81%
6Ru Paul3,042,532 15.46%
5Colonel Meow3,054,746 15.80%
4Snow Penis3,092,263 15.98%
3Grumpy Cat4,334,509 19.12%
2George Takei4,450,891 20.03%
1소녀시대 (Girls Generation)4,696,530 22.70%

I love the fact that we are essentially done with the Kardashians (Kim didn't even make the list). Yay for the internet!

We did have to disqualify Girls Generation, because they are a 9-member K-Pop band and we only have 2 bishops to replace. We could replace all the pawns with Girls Generation, but then we would have to leave out Seohyun, and she's my favorite (and the voice of Edith in the Korean version of Despicable Me). Also, pawns are more popular than Charmander, so they aren't going anywhere. (By the way, if you think everyone in Girls Generation looks alike, you are a racist).

Because the bishop was removed for its "penis-ness", we can't replace the bishop with a "snow penis", whatever that is. And if we add a cat, any cat, Hasbro will sue us.

So, we're removing the bishops because they look too much like penises. And replacing them with George Takei and Ru Paul. Irony?

Editor: Nate Silver predicted that Nate Silver would capture 8.67% of the electorate. Nate Silver was only off by about 20,000 votes.

Finally, "moving diagonally" is pretty boring in a world where 31% of our games involve killing zombies with rocket-propelled grenades. So:

Step 3: We asked the internet what "special power" we should give the new piece. Results:

Rank "Special Power" For New PieceVotes Percent
8 SEO (Search Engine Optimization)565,991 2.69%
7 "Purchase Vigara Levtira Cilias  --65% off! "958,761 3.58%
6 Ban plastic water bottles1,057,105 6.05%
5 "Remove Moles and Skin Tags Whilst You Sleep!"1,340,901 6.98%
4 Repeal the 16th Amendment2,140,018 9.23%
3 Petition the federal government to build a Death Star2,422,982 10.11%
2 "Look great naked!"2,766,339 11.89%
1 Impeach Obama (aka "Socialist Hitler")12,415,007 44.10%

It's official. Another big win for President Obama! Even Karl Rove won't contest these results.

So, after 14 centuries, chess gets its first major makeover. The bishops have been officially replaced with George Takei and Ru Paul.

George Takei still moves diagonally (he certainly can't go straight), and he also has the power to impeach "Socialist Hitler" (as long as Hitler appears in the guise of a black man from Hawaii).

Ru Paul sits on the other side of the queen (that's pretty confusing) and has the ability to "Look great naked!" (but we knew that already, right?)

In other news, Baseball Mogul 2014 will be available in 6 weeks! More info soon.

Monday, January 21, 2013

Mitt Romney's America


With the inauguration of Barack Obama to his 2nd term, it's worth taking a moment to consider what the United States would be like today if Mitt Romney were taking the oath of office on the Capitol steps.

It is, of course, difficult to know. Romney invented Obamacare before denouncing it. He said that government can't create jobs, but that his administration would create 12 million jobs. He is "staunchly pro-life" and "defends a woman's right to choose".

So, we have no idea what his policies would be. But we do one thing about the way he thinks everyone should live.

"If a Democrat were here, he'd look around and say no one should live like this. Republicans come here and say everyone should live like this." - Mitt Romney, during a fundraiser at "Papa" John Schnatter's 24,000 square foot limestone castle, complete with 22-car garage and private golf course.


Unlike the "47%" comment, I actually think Mitt is proud of this statement. With hard work, low taxes and generous government subsidies for the rich, we can all live like Papa John.

Wow.

I'm going to ignore the fact that Mr. Schatter's carbon footprint is bigger than Godzilla's, and just think about the actual logistics of everyone living like this.

In "Mitt Romney's America":

1. Everyone has a 22-car garage. We each get about 10 cars plus some empty spaces for visitors.

2. Everyone has 11 bathrooms. Because everyone like this, you can't hire someone to clean your bathrooms for you. They are too busy cleaning their own bathrooms. And do you really expect someone with their own private golf course to spend their days cleaning toilets?

3. Everyone repairs air conditioners. Again, you can't hire an HVAC specialist for a reasonable rate, because they are all busy keeping their own homes running. Perhaps some sort of barter economy would develop where your neighbor would clean and maintain your cooling and heating systems in return for you cleaning and maintaining her four swimming pools. Or maybe you'd rather spend 120 hours each week washing dishes or vacuuming walk-in closets.

4. There are no schools. Everyone is too busy mowing lawns for anyone to go to college and become a teacher. Also, kids have to start work as soon as they can operate a pair of pruning shears.

5. There are no cities. Everyone lives on 16 acres. The sprawl created by everyone moving out of New York City would cover 400,000 square miles, stretching from Canada to Florida (and completely covering Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia).


6. After filling every square inch of the United States (including Alaska) we would invade and colonize: Canada, Mexico, India, China, Brazil, South Africa, Kenya, Greenland, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Argentina, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Japan, Vietnam, Egypt, North Korea, South Korea, Bangladesh ... and all of Europe. This kills or displaces more than two thirds of the world's population.

Alternatively, we could occupy every acre on the Moon and still have enough Americans to fill all of Siberia.

7. There are no universities, no telephones and no internet. We have giant unlit houses with no roads and no electricity running to them. There are no hospitals or research laboratories. America would become the least innovative country on the planet (behind Burundi and Mozambique).

8. On the bright side, we would have the world's lowest wealth inequality (better than Sweden and South Korea).

Oops. I just noticed that Mitt didn't say "every American". He said "everyone".

So, new plan. First, pave over every ocean and lake so that the Earth has enough land for all the people in China, India and Brazil. The United States gets all of the moon, and most of Mercury (the new "Sunbelt"). Russia gets Mars (they like cold weather). Everyone else fits on Venus. And Neil deGrasse Tyson can go live on Pluto.

Monday, January 7, 2013

Finding The Split In The Republican Party

In 1861, the Confederate States of America seceded from the United States of America. The map below shows the Confederacy in green (with light green showing territory claimed by the Confederacy without formal secession).


Today, the same geographical split exists. But it exists inside the Republican Party.

Last week, the House of Representatives passed the American Taxpayer Relief Act -- a tax cut of more than $3 trillion over the next 10 years. The bill passed by a vote of 257-167.
In order to prevent the "fiscal cliff", this bill required some degree of bipartisan support. And John Boehner (R-OH) managed to convince 36% of his caucus to vote for the bill.

However, the vote breakdown shows a huge geographical split inside the Republican Party:

For Against Support
Original Slave States (1776) 1 29 3.3%
The South 18 84 17.6%
The Northeast 25 2 92.6%
TOTAL 85 151 36.0%

Here is a map showing the breakdown by state. Orange shows where a majority of the Republican Representatives voted for the bill. Red shows where they opposed the bill decisively (by 3 or more votes).


This shows a split in the House that isn't between Republicans and Democrats. It's between Northern Republicans and Southern Republicans.

Friday, January 4, 2013

The Poor Get Screwed ... Again

This post should be short, as the graph speaks for itself.

Congress just passed, and Obama just signed, the "American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012" (aka "ATRA").

Since Obama won the election, we know that ATRA shifted the federal tax burden from working people towards the top 2%. Right?

Wrong.

The percentage increase, by household income group, of federal tax burden, from last year to this year:


As expected, everyone's taxes went up. But the poor got hit with a 120.9% tax hike.

Before the comment section fills up, I do realize that those earning $500,000 pay more taxes in terms of absolute value than someone earning $20,000. (In fact, I used to be a Republican).

For example, a family earning $20,000 that had a $2,000 federal tax bill could see their taxes go up to $4,418 -- an increase of $2,418.

Meanwhile, a young stock trader making $500,000 on Wall Street might see his federal taxes go from $75,000 to $77,850 -- an increase of $2,850.

$2,850 is bigger than $2,418. Therefore, Congress is soaking the rich! Your logic is impeccable. Now go fuck yourself.

Seriously, which family can better absorb a big tax hike?

As the poor already pay much more in taxes as a share of their income, this is horrible news for those families hit hardest by the recession.

Mitt Romney famously said: "I'm not concerned about the very poor."

It appears that Obama and Congress feel the same way.

Source: Tax Policy Center